Nov

21

see graph.

The uncle follows up on December 2, 2008:

I think the relevant part of this chart is missing - the point of the chart was that on so many occasions (I think it was approx. 50% of the time) the stock market closed the year within 3 percent of the high, but only closed within 3% of the low one time (1914);

The data I wanted to post included a second chart of the closes from the high.

The editor notes:

the second chart was published on December 2.


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5 Comments so far

  1. the boy on November 22, 2008 9:31 am

    Sorry for my stupidity, but what is this saying?

  2. Terry Sullivan on November 22, 2008 10:38 am

    To a hayseed out in MN, it sure looks like we are nearing the bottom of the death spiral — or, more likely, the bottom of the L curve.

  3. SG on November 22, 2008 2:38 pm

    Not so sure about the bottom of the L curve or bottom of the V. By the end of 1930 there was a 44% drop from the year’s high, and then again, in 1931, there was yet another 59.9% drop from that same year’s high. Of course, much has been said about this period not being comparable to the crash of 1929 and the years immediately following it. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see, won’t we. One month left in 2008, and we’re very close to surpassing the 1930 precedent. And as for the likelihood of reaching or surpassing the 1931 precedent this year? Food for thought: that would mean a 5350 on the Dow on December 31. If the 2008 Dow does parallel the one in 1930, will 2009 parallel 1931? Ask a Black Swan.

  4. proton on November 22, 2008 11:40 pm

    This table seems to say just that "The stockmarket does not reach new highs or new lows of the year on the last business day"…

  5. vic on November 23, 2008 11:46 am

    the avuncular relative and his brother are well aware of mr. proton's point and it is an exercise for the reader to augment and benefit from such awareness. v

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