Nov

21

(Another study showing that the market hasn't been this bad since the depression*)

Assuming tomorrow closes about here, the current 15 week DJIA return of -35.6% only compares with 18 such from the depression, and one from 1987. Here are the 20 worst rolling 15 week returns:

Date             15 W
07/05/32    -0.471
06/20/32    -0.464
06/13/32    -0.448
05/31/32    -0.437
06/27/32    -0.437
12/07/31    -0.434
12/21/31    -0.409
06/06/32    -0.404
05/23/32    -0.396
12/14/31    -0.392
12/16/29    -0.386
11/22/37    -0.375
11/30/31    -0.374
07/11/32    -0.370
11/23/31    -0.365
11/15/37    -0.363
11/17/08    -0.356
11/11/29    -0.352
04/25/32    -0.349
11/30/87    -0.348

*It's hard to imagine anyone who bases investment decisions on history not getting killed here, or anyone using leverage living a normal life. It's also hard to imagine that the current recession is close to the depression, or that SP500 deserved to be cut in half in 13 months (it has).

The lame duck period does seem hopeless; maybe a good time for long-term investing in a rich equity risk premium.


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