Oct

22

VNThere are many unprecedented events that we are witnessing these days. To me, the most amazing is that on 12 31 1982 the Nikkei closed at 8500, by no means a local high as it was 9000 a year later.. On 10 15 2008 it closed at 8458 thereby marking a 26 year period where a major enterprise stock market moved without a rise. The S&P stood at 800 to 900 in mid 1997 and reached 1000 in early 1998. Thus, 11 years without a gain in the US. Is there a single overriding reason?

To me, the key aberration occurred in the two weeks of 9 26 2008 to 10 10 2008 when the S&P moved from 1218 to 891 and the Nikkei plummeted from 11920 to 82760.

To gain perspective, I looked at weekly prices:

date       sp     nikkei    bonds    euro   crude gold   wheat vix

0919     1246    1192       118 5   14466   10254  834   718   32

0926     1216    1189       117 1   14609   10618  879   716   35

1003     1108    1094       11920   13772    9301  835   640   45

1010      891    8276       11620   13408    7799  849   563   56

A preliminary insight is that vix and the dollar rise and crude were the major harbingers of the unprecedented decline the week of 10 10.

I always believe that markets and prices are the key and that interrelation and the web is always there. The problem is they're always changing. But at least we've got a description.

Anatoly Veltman adds:

My hypothesis at this hour is that the currency markets are destined to wash-out first, with world equity markets grudgingly following. The reason, obviously, is that margin liquidation in FX takes plays instantly - while generating and then instituting collection on stock margin calls takes time, not to mention timezones.

Kim Zussman wonders:

Couldn't help wondering when/if backbone financial theories (such as high allocation to equities for long term investors) will become so unpopular that demand for courses in financial markets will dry up. Y@le had a guest lecture from David Swensen earlier this year, will he be invited back next year?

Charles Pennington comments:

For any remaining fans of the Fed Model, here are some numbers from the Financial Times (page 23, "Market Data"):

country      earnings yield %      10-year gov't bond yield %
US
                         8%                3.7%
Germany               10%               3.9%
UK                        13%               4.6%
Japan                    9%                1.6%

J.T Holley writes:

body snatchersThe web now includes for me the Vix trading higher than a barrell of oil at one point, and for me a first, the cash trading more than the Dec mini S*P contract. What is next– dawgs n catz sleepin' together? Be very very careful, brainwashin' is in effect and bodies are being snatched!

Stefan Jovanovich replies:

Starting the Index of home prices at 1995 overstates the run-up of home prices. It would be like starting a stock market Index at 1982. Kim may disagree, but house prices here in California in 1995 were still recovering from a boom-bust cycle that was almost as dramatic as the current one. The current boom didn't really get going until after the dot.com bust; 2002 was really the first full year when housing prices only went up no matter where they were.

Time for Oscar Hammerstein and Carousel (first sung on Broadway by Jan Clayton aka Lassie's Mom):

"When you walk through a storm,
Hold your head up high,
And don't be afraid of the dark,
At the end of the storm is a golden sky.
And the sweet silver song of a lark.
Walk on through the wind,
Walk on through the rain,
Tho' your dreams be tossed and blown,
Walk on, walk on, with hope in your heart,
And you'll never walk alone.
You'll never walk alone :| "

Time to buy because it is way too late to sell, and all the canes have been swapped for walkers.


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