Oct
13
What Happens After a Big Bear Market? from James Sogi
October 13, 2008 |
Consider the reversals off the July and Oct '02 lows and thereafter. Things were pretty bad then as well. If you'll recall, a president had been killed, another president resigned, a lost war, race riots, bankrupt cities. It's not as bad now. A quick Google shows many are studying the '74 and '31 & '37 bottoms as well. Well worth looking in to. What happens after a big bear market?
Comments
10 Comments so far
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A …. bull market?
"What happens after a big bear market?"
10 years long lotsa nottin?
Studying the 1873 banking crisis may be more appropriate.
Volume dries up.
Japan, the second biggest economy had a bull market in late eighties till 1990 where it touched a high of 40000. Till today, after a span of 18 years it isn’t able to stabilize above 20,000.
The boom and bust cycles continue, but assuming a bull market after a bear market wouldn’t be acceptable. The bear market may continue for prolong period.
DOW JONES
INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
December 31, 1964 — 874.12
December 31, 1981 — 875.00
Source: The Snowball
So it makes sense to invest in companies which fit Buffett’s thumb rule.
james sogi,
change your guru to Nassim Taleb so that you guys won't have to be deluded with your guru niederhoffer
Speaking of Japan’s stock market, it’s taking a drubbing right now…down 10% in early trading Thursday morning.
No one is calling the bottom?
to ww I was going to say something to you but forget it. I figured if you dont have the character to use more than one sentence and initials to communicate then you are not worth my time.
to David DT the last great bear market was 2000- 2002 bottoming out at 7800 and went on to 14000. That is more than a lots nothing. Try to use a bit more original thought.
To Leonardo why study 1873 I am unfamiliar with that event. How would this correlate to something 135 years later. I suggest you expound on your statement.
To Daniel Bottom callers are suggesting this market is taking on the flavor of the 1973 1974 great bear market of the failed Nixon Administration, gold standard, end of the Vietname war and first oil shock. A big fall of with a rebound and then a retest of the lows. 2002 the market hit its nadir then retested in March in 2003 and then off to the races for 4 and one half years.
I don’t think this market is going to look back at this morning’s lows for a few months…this is what a rally looks like with VIX 70-80.
:)