Oct
12
“It’s Different This Time” — Is It? from Martin Lindkvist
October 12, 2008 |
Baron Rothschild allegedly said that one should buy "when there is blood in the streets." With the current situation's being what it is, clearly we have reached that point, and the only questions that remain are: How much further — and what will happen then? What strikes me is that people that usually are positive have turned very negative, and no wonder with all the alarming news that keeps hitting the market and the unrelenting selling. But there is a deeper angst that keeps creeping up: "It is different this time", meaning that the market will not stage a rebound, or that any rebound will be short lived. With the exception of the list, it seems that sentiment is very dark. You hear things like "all markets have fallen so there is no where money will flow from", or "we are heading into a deep recession that will further depress markets", or "sell now, we will fall 20% more in a matter of days". While any of these statements may be true, when they come after a 40% fall they seem to me bear the earmark of capitulation underway, and a strong rise to follow.
Comments
4 Comments so far
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Just buy after the turn.
Matt,
Often in a panic it is too late to buy after the turn is visible. Since I made the post during the weekend and with the SnP e-mini now (0800 CET tuesday) up 150 points since the post and 200 points from bottom, it is probably a different risk reward scenario now at least for the short term so be careful.
Too soon for me. I'm always late to the party, then half of me leaves too soon and the other half leaves too late… Thanks for the care.
MJ
I agree with you. Only I beat you by two days! [Pats self on the back… and then furtively looks over shoulder.]
http://thelonelytrader.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/rothschild-would-be-a-buyer-today/