Oct

11

A VeltmanThe three-day latency wreaks havoc for those who try and use Commitment Of Traders report for forecast, rather than just for objective description of preceding market composition. SP slide 1169-> 1006 (down 13%), included in five-session move ending 10/7: uncovered Bearish C.O.T. divergence of unprecedented degree! To sum up regular+miniSP: Commercial Net Short rose 64,000 regular SP contracts; while Funds Net Long rose 30,000 and Small Spec Net Long 34,000! Also unprecedented was Small Spec desertion of commitment overall: their "Net Long hike" resulted from halving of their entire futures Short interest! All this certainly explains subsequent past-10/7 rout, which brought SP further down 1006-> 891 (another 11%), since the period of report capture. Who knows how commitments might have changed over the past three days…

Throughout the panicky activity of the past month, there was un-paralleled number of attempts and methods to account for past and predict future. One can't hold oracle status in all areas of fundamental, technical, historical, philosophical, social and political analysis. What piqued my curiosity — and I must admit, it was not for the first time in my 22 years of 24-hour vigil (i.e. some 200,000 hours of real-time markets): the Commitment of Traders, heavily flawed and latent by definition — did filter out Stock crash, Currency crash and Gold/Treasury "non safe-haven."


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