Sep

29

OK7, from Anatoly Veltman

September 29, 2008 |

21 Comments so far

1. Joe Davis on September 29, 2008 4:17 pm

   Is there anything more overrated than the PhDs who skim money out of the system and produce nothing at all of value? Most of them are show betting bridge jumpers just a broken leg away from total wipeout.

   And this display by our supposed representatives in DC is a profound embarrassment to the nation.

2. George Parkanyi on September 30, 2008 12:20 am

   Yeah, but did they make money? No wonder oil and cattle were mysteriously 100% oppositely correlated that spring. Cheers, George

3. Anatoly Veltman on September 30, 2008 3:44 am

   Keen sense of humor, George! Of making money: I doubt the round level 1150 will contain E-mini overnight. But the Retracement zone between 38.2% 1153.75 and 50% 1166.60 may be interesting to offer at the first touch.

4. the boy on September 30, 2008 9:10 am

   Is this really what DailySpec has come down to? Retracement levels from some internet technical analyst?

5. Anatoly Veltman on September 30, 2008 9:51 am

   the boy, it's hard to judge who you've been in the industry for the past 22 years — as you contribute nothing.

6. the boy on September 30, 2008 11:11 am

   Actually being in the industry for 22 years allows me to see clearly that you contribute nothing.

7. George Parkanyi on September 30, 2008 7:34 pm

   How come it's always about you guys? If there's anyone who day in, and day out, contributes nothing, it's me! No, wait, that didn't come out right…

8. Anatoly Veltman on September 30, 2008 8:54 pm

   it would be good to hear about a widely-held market: stocks, bonds, currency pairs, energy, metals.

9. George Parkanyi on September 30, 2008 11:10 pm

   OK, here’s something about widely held markets…

   Stocks are pieces of paper that go up and down in price.

   One bond (also a piece of paper) is more valuable than one stock, except for lately.

   Currency pairs. Swiss Francs and Mexican Pesos go together well with a nice aperitif such as Cinzano. I can’t speak to Australian Dollars and Brazilian Reals - both involve way too much yellow and are just not my forte. (Though confirming my suspicions, I HAVE overheard in cafes frequented by interior-decorators that for the two to be found in the same room together is “positively criminal”.)

   Energy is usually something resolved with supplements. Oil sands? I think not.

   As for metals, come on people, this is the information age. Picks and shovels?

   Cheers,
   GP
   :)

10. Anatoly Veltman on October 1, 2008 3:16 am

    I’ll tell you better: it wasn’t enough that E-mini got stone-walled just over 38% of “the crash” during European trade. It subsequently backed-off precise 50% by early US; before rallying precisely as many handles during US, as it did during Asia! And the entire rally of off the contract low so far is contained within 38% of the decline from that infamous panicky 1291.25 top-print; which by-the-way was a two-day(!) precise 50% comeback of the entire summer’s EPZ drop from 1443.50 to 1136.25! But of course this nonsense is not proprietary to E-mini unpredictable “crash” zigs and zags; Dec Bond’s “crash day” rocket fizzled at precise 62% of off its contract high!

    Of course, dollar’s rally terminated 9/11/2008 - same day that EUR approached 50% retracement on Daily, while GBP 50% retracement on Weekly. Dollar Index’s subsequent 7-session decline terminated 9/22/2008 at exact 50% of its Jul->Sep 71.32->80.38 rally!

    Of longer-term significance is test on Monday’s closing bell of Nasdaq Composite’s 2002->2007 1108->2861 (50%) 1984 level. Also CRB Index 2001->2008 uninterrupted climb 183->615 is testing (38%) 450 level as we speak

11. hahahah on October 1, 2008 10:48 am

    what a bunch of total hogwash

12. Anatoly Veltman on October 1, 2008 11:30 am

    My point exactly… 100% return on margin every day. But of course it never keeps up toward 25,000% return in any given year. Don't know what to do… Glad at least I get 5-10% annual drift in my IRA. Or do I? I was too afraid to log-in and check of late…

13. hahahah on October 1, 2008 1:18 pm

    you have obviously never managed money or made a trade in your life. you're another wall street fraud. run the fibonaci on that.

14. Anatoly Veltman on October 1, 2008 2:21 pm

    actually, I've traded 10% of one of the major exchanges volume on some days and have original brokerage statements showing that. And all asked of you is analysis/signal in any widely-held market of your choice

15. hahahah on October 1, 2008 5:21 pm

    although certainly not widely held, I'll say short you.. but seriously, 10% of one of the major exchanges….I love it

16. Anatoly Veltman on October 1, 2008 9:09 pm

    I’m actually surprised by this display of a bit of sense of humor; but all we’re trying to do is exchange trading ideas

17. George Parkanyi on October 1, 2008 11:36 pm

    Anatoly,

    Are you trading these observations and signals you are presenting? Are they part of an overall strategy? And in general is it working? I would be interested in your commentary on the implications of some of these things. What kind of a picture do they paint?

    For example, in my village-idiot way I look at the Natural Gas COT and see commercials as the only game in town with a bid these days. My interpretation (based on work done by Larry Williams and presented in his books) is that the commercials, though not necessarily speculating are getting involved at a price where it is beneficial for them to do so in whatever business they are in. That suggests that at around the current price they will continue doing it - in this particular instance buy. Sooner or later, because they are absorbing the speculative selling, the market will turn and go higher for a reasonable trade.

    Admittedly this is simplistic, but since I use a diversified allocation strategy, I will comfortably average down into that scenario and wait till the turn comes (not with futures, but with a commodity ETF). That’s what I did on the short side of oil, gold and grains earlier in the year. I was under water for quite a while in these positions, but eventually it paid off.

    Do you position trade, short term trade, day-trade or all of the above?

    Cheers,
    George

18. Anatoly Veltman on October 2, 2008 9:39 am

    George, my strategic biases last at least 30% of the underlying price move. e.g. I’ve made it plenty clear by Xmas that my bias in US equities shifted to Short since 12/11/2007. As bulk of my strategic shorting was done above 1520, and then at 1510 again - I’m not pursuing any strategic sales now, 360 dollars lower. I believe that “the drift” unequivocaly applies, following any 30-35% correction in US stocks.

    In NatGas: I was strategically Bearish at $13.50 prices and, naturally, Bullish at $7.50 prices. No C.O.T. component has anything to do with it.

    “Daytrading” futures/options is different: one can make as much as 100% daily(!), properly jumping in-and-out of contracts even as late as the last yards of a trending move! These are the kind of trades that I sometimes filter via C.O.T.

    So it appears that yours and mine interpretation of C.O.T. is philosophically different, let alone a particular entry timing

19. the boy on October 2, 2008 11:57 am

    Daytrading futures using COT! This just gets better by the day.

20. Anatoly Veltman on October 2, 2008 3:18 pm

    you lack capacity for wanting to positively digest any text; lack name. you've been encouraged to post your ideas about markets; still never wrote anything about a single market.

21. George Parkanyi on October 2, 2008 7:47 pm

    Fair enough, thanks AV.

    Cheers
    George