Sep

23

A VeltmanCommitment of Traders (C.O.T.) report is always three days late; latest release 9/19 was as of 9/16 close. We had a few "events" 9/17-9/19, which didn't figure into the report Also, many futures contracts were expiring 9/19 — important caveat to mechanical users of positions data. Still, we tried and distilled a few hints…

1/ Stock Index C.O.T. were slightly Bearish: Commercials were adding Shorts on decline, while Small Specs bought near the lows — altogether indicative, that those were not likely final lows!

2/ Treasury futures lost Open Interest across the board, most pronounced was 30% loss in 2-year! While we don't have much of directional signal in Treasuries, my hunch is that players are trying to distance themselves from the Fed. Fed's competence and consistency has been questionable all year; now I'd venture say that even its credit-power has been undermined. If Fed can no longer pull punches, what's the use to even try forecasting its moves and speculating at short-end?

3/ Currency futures expirations more than halved Open Interest, leaving telling carcasses to behold: Commercial EU Longs 68k vs. 24k Shorts, BP 75k vs 12k, SF 22k vs 3k, AU 29 vs 10k! Those not appreciating these commitments near 78c AUD lows, please consider: near 98c AUD highs just 2 months earlier, Commercial commitments were Long 10k vs 70k Short!

4/ Metals Open Interest was the greatest surprise of 9/17-18 $777->$926 historic Gold jump, which awoke memories of 79'-80' flight to quality. The retest of $1000 appeared a given. Many began to verbally speculate on imminent move back to Gold Standard! But we see more talk than action: Gold Open Interest was supposed to baloon on 9/17-18 rally; instead it deflated by 2%! Silver's by 4% to new 2008 low, Copper's by 3% also to lows! Curiously, Platinum's and Palladium's did rise — Japanese prolifiration on dearer Yen?

5/ Energy futures lost Open Interest across the board, with Crude's hitting 2-year low! The biggest surprise was increased Commercial Short on collapse from $100->$90; while Small Specs covered Shorts! We were confident Long before we'd discoved all this; now we'll be itching to sell into rally


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  1. Tyler Lang on September 28, 2008 7:51 am

    By the way Anatoly, thank you for this excellent synopsis. It is very useful & insightful. Tyler

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