Sep

20

V NWhen the financial world is looking like it's ending, it will turn around on a Thursday. Three of the eight ranges above 70 since 1996 came on a Thursday. Monday is too early to act. Tuesday's door openers are met with skepticism. Wednesday is relentless. And Thursday, the ratchet is taken out to expand power and buoy up the wealth.

The fixed income market will be much wiser than the stock market and will predict what is going to happen, as will Japan overnight.

Oil will take the opportunity to rise from below 100 to above 100 while none are looking so that the wealth can stay in the more fecund corners of the earth.

VIX is even more omniscient than silver or the scholars, as it increases on up days right before the crash. Then it will move above a 10 figure to get out all the remaining nakeds who were not already priced out of their positions with self-serving marks and then fall a fast 10 on its way to below 20 again. The most prescient thing about the crisis was said by Russ Sears (see post below), that the regulations requiring a market price and not a model price was the key ingredient in the crisis. Whenever you've got an inactive market, the danger of fictitious low bids and high offers can do you in. Perhaps even more prescient was the Collab who said it was all the former romantic NY governor's fault for taking the cool hand Herb out of picture.

The vigilantes elicited the response in everyone's interest for the time being, shoring up the former white-shoes and enabling massive increases in commands and regulations to be acceptable to everyone.


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