Sep

14

V NI never can read an O'Brian without learning something timeless or bursting out with laughter. While listening to Far Side of the World, I came across the hands getting very disturbed about the extirpations from the boobies which wore away the metal of the guns "and while the Dr. wasn't looking, they gave the boobies a good beating whenever they could."

Next comes two tortoises going down a thoroughly beaten track. Yes, a "beaten track." That's how trains got started. Originally the horses used beaten tracks, converted into rails and then with steam locomotives pulling.

Does the market go on a beaten track? More than a Lobogola migration back and forth on the elephant tracks. This must be tested, but do keep the tests to yourself.

James Sogi relates:

J SogiUSC trounced Ohio State this weekend 35-3. Coach Pete Carroll said of the win, "Over the years when we prepare this well, we're hard to beat. It doesn't matter who we play, We didn't do anything out of the ordinary." This surely applies to traders who prepare well, who have a number of appropriate strategies for the various market conditions — they are going to be hard to beat. The USC team has a great organization, and attracts top talent. Their coaches and facilities are tops. They have a supportive audience.

Even now, with markets in turmoil it gives the short term guys opportunity, and even the long term guys well-priced buy in points. Even if it bounces down a hundred, it will bounce back up with a vengance. In any case, a good trader should be hard to beat, especially on his home turf, even against other top ranked teams in any market.

Tao of PokerIn Tao of Poker, by Larry Phillips, one of the top all time favorite trading books, up there with Bacon and with Niederhoffer & Kenner, there is a treasure of deep wisdom. At the core is the idea of playing right at all times. Even when things are down, continure to play the proper game. Don't blow out and turn a 20k loss into a 100k loss. He says don't get greedy on the wins, take what the game gives. He says when the cards are right, and the players are weak, press it. There are times when the market is turning or turned and you've got to pull a Nelson and go right at them. Hanging back leaves one behind, or, worse, vulnerable later to counterattack. He talks about the black holes of breath taking depth, with is scary to keep in mind. He says play for money, not for the thrill or the feelings which are associated with certain positions. As with all deep wisdom, it much easier said than done.

George Parkanyi muses:

There have been panics before in the US markets that looked as dire, or more dire, to the participants at the time than this. One difference now though is the interconnectedness of the global economy. To me things look a little like a nonlinear system that has been in a period of stability for a long time, starting to becoming chaotic. The feedback loops, both negative and positive, seem to be overcorrecting more and more wildly (recent commodity moves both up and down). If the global linkages start breaking, through the sheer force of these movements (e.g. credit market participants no longer want to trade because they don't know how to value assets), then you could potentially see a period of total financial collapse in terms of today's major world currencies. (The physical and human assets will still all be there and eventually re-monetized.)

Remember that famous video clip of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse?

I'm not saying it will happen, but the normal money flows do seem to be decoupling in some markets, and where does that lead us?


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