Aug

17

HurricaneThe National Weather Service has issued many different models for Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Fay, most of which head in my direction, right on top of my head. The expert meteorologists say that the storm will make landfall on Tuesday, somewhere between Ft. Myers and Tampa, with my neighborhood right in the middle. Since I've been through this a few times, I know the drill. This morning I shuttered my house in about 90 minutes. Since I have a long term view of being prepared for an emergency, our generator is topped off, we have food and water for 35 days, and we don't have to panic. I ran over to the grocery store this morning for some donuts, and saw the madding crowd. Everyone was stripping the shelves, buying all the water, batteries, and staple items like there was no tomorrow. Tempers were flaring and people were pushing and shoving, much like the guys in the wheat pit when some bad news comes out. I'm sure that Lowe's and Home Depot are experiencing the same thing with plywood for windows. Preparedness for a hurricane is similar to preparing for a market event. Have a plan, stick to it, and modify it as conditions require. One can ensure personal safety through proper planning, much as one can reduce market losses through proper planning. Our plan is to always have on hand enough supplies to get through any disruption in the supply chain. One thing about a catastrophic event in nature or the market, once the damage has been done, the growth can resume. Four years ago, Hurricane Charlie missed us by a mere 30 miles. The beachfront residents to the south of me were 60% wiped out. Today, that area is back, bigger and better than ever. Markets in 1907-08, 1929, 1932, 1972, 1987, 2001-02 were all catastrophic events in those times, and all more than recovered, completely. Nature, like the markets, sometimes must wash things away so growth can continue. Nature and the markets both deserve respect because if taken lightly, they can do serious damage to your health and your bankroll.


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