Aug

14

V NMerrill

Contemplate why Merrill would come out with a bearish report on the brokerage industry, causing the five percent decline today in the financials. It would seem that in criticizing brokers they risk being tarred with their own brush. I have found that when a brokerage says something like this, usually they know of something within that will soon be divulged; recall how Merrill's Chairman announced before Aug 31, 1998, when Long Term Capital hit the fan, that the troubles were not over. Surely such a report would have been cleared with the Pope.

Olympics

So much for the theory that during Olympic Games, the host country's stock market goes up. It worked for Italy and Greece, but that's when the cycle changed.

CPI

Contemplate the way the market joker sets up for the middle of the month when the CPI report is released. The last five were greeted by the S&P futures with up 40, up 19, up 6, and up 26. Preceded by a down 53. Six of the last eight opens have been down. The moon looked full. Shipping index is down 23 days in a row, and commodities after one of the worst one-month declines ever, were up a googol yesterday. None of this is predictive, as that would change the tempo. But mistakes will be made.


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