Aug

3

J T

"In the coming depression, pawn shops will be a profitable business". A Daily Speculations reader.

Finney had a better ending in 'The Body Snatchers' book than the movies. The dynamic duo of Bennell and Driscoll torch the pods that they find. This is important and I believe that Finney purposefully wrote it that way because it came at a time of hopelessness and desperation where everything seemed like it would be over and the world would come to an end. Guess what, the aliens in the fictitious book that survived the fire died off according to Finney and the world was saved thanks to backbone, effort and not rolling over and saying "well, we are going down".

Just as the torching does take place in depressions, look at the returns the markets brought forward from '34 - '36. Anyone that has burnt a field down due to overgrowth of weeds and thicket knows the beautiful greenery that comes the following spring. Finney I feel knew this and therefore provided an appropriate ending. A ending where life prospers and advances. Fittingly this week the Olympic motto is "Citius, Altius, Fortius" aka "Faster, Higher, Stronger".

I'm a little old fashioned, but to think that one can predict with certainty depressions or heck even recessions for that matter seems a little self centered? Am I wrong in thinking or feeling this?

Kevin Depew replies:

K DThe stock market bottomed in 1934. But the economy and the stock market are not the same thing, perhaps that is the disconnect. There are far more people with exposure to economic conditions than to stock market returns. I have not been able to figure out how stock market speculators can win by following the economy, or how those who are more dependent on the economy for survival can win by paying attention to the stock market.

Jeff Watson adds:

With economic slowdowns and recessions being part of the natural order of the economic cycle, I look at them as just another season, much like the solar or lunar cycle. There are many trading opportunities during slowdowns, and somewhere in the world, there's always a bull market. To quote Chance the Gardener in "Being There", "In the spring, there will be growth…." Metaphorically speaking, Chance, (who had no clue about anything) hit the nail on the head. The question remains, when will the spring time appear? The astute speculator who can identify the change of spring time will prosper.

Janice Dorn reveals:

Dr DornI am the Daily Speculations reader who stated "In the coming Depression, pawn shops will be a profitable business." Human history seems logical in afterthought, but a mystery in forethought" — William Strauss and Neil Howe from their book The Fourth Turning. I believe we have left fall and and are now entering winter. With all due respect to the general optimisim of this site and my high regard for Vic and Laurel, what has been going on since 2001 has been ordained by history. It is our responsibility to ourselves and those we love to protect ourselves and survive through what is coming. After the purge, there will be a new awakening, but many us alive today will not see it. If we are not prepared to go into deep survival mode, we will not make it through the coming crisis. Even if the fourth turning — winter — does not occur within the next two years, the lessons of the third turning will serve us well and strengthen and preserve what we have.

Dr. Dorn is the author of Personal Responsibility: The Power of You, Gorman, 2008 


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