Jul

8

S BForget the term bear market. Forget any term or way of thinking about something that gives anyone a negative visceral reaction to it. Forget statistical tests, forget averages, forget range bound, forget highs, forget lows, forget tradeable.

None of that mattered when I played poker and the odds screamed to me that I had an XX% of winning this hand (notice only two X's….which implies the odds are somewhere south of 100%). Even if the odds were 99% in my favor to win as long as the next card was not the 2 of clubs, those odds/statistics/calculations are meaningless IF THE NEXT CARD IS THE TWO OF CLUBS!!!!

When you're portfolio is valued at a million dollars, and you are drawing a sum of money off that principal to live, then along comes 2000, 2001, 2002, thru early 2003…..when the SnP is down 50% and the NAZ is down nearly 80%…..when you've seen the value of your portfolio melt down 50 - 80% in terms of return MINUS your monthly check to live on, you are royally  s[quished]!

Lets say you were withdrawing $50k/year off your portfolio for those 3.25 years. You've now got somewhere south (maybe even WAY SOUTH) of $350,000. You're in trouble. It doesn't matter if the market reverts back to the mean, you can not maintain your lifestyle and your portfolio will likely never recover unless you stop taking money from it and give it many years to recover……while you're back at work so you can feed yourself and pay your bills.

It doesn't matter what the statistics say, you are screwed! It doesn't matter if you call it a bear market, a glitch, an expected random event, or if you call it Christmas Eve…..you are s[quished].

Once you start eating your seed corn, your chances of recover begin to diminish in an inverse (and exponential?) manner.


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