Jun

28

A nice, clear definition: "a bear market is a 20 percent drop from an all-time high." We'll know when we've had one. Nigel Davies.

Like we used to ask, what about numbers on the table?

Using DJIA 1950-2008 monthly data (skipping the Depression because it can't happen again), a bear was defined as this month's close < 20% below the high of any of the prior 24 months. Comparing the mean return of months following bear months with all months in the series shows they are actually higher - though not significantly:

Note that at least some of the insignificance is stemming from the higher volatility of 'after bear market' months:

The higher volatility is quite statistically significant.
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Speaking of numbers on the table, here's a reminder to budding real estate moguls just how pricey bubbles can get Homeowner offers her house and her 'love' for sale


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