Jun
8
Briefly Speaking, from Victor Niederhoffer
June 8, 2008 |
1) The two most amazing things about the decline on Friday were that it was the worst Friday ever (down 45.80 in S&P futures) after an up Thursday, and that the Chairman, who talked at Harvard on Wednesday about the soundness of the economy, apparently didn't have the number in hand, as I have always treated his utterances as if he knows the next announcement at least three days in advance. The Kennedy School once bought a million + cache of vintage refreshments and presumably a similar effect must have caused the lapse. Of course, the teenage employment aspect is just one more fly in the ointment of the usual random numbers that greet the employment report, sure to be reversed on a statistical basis by the next random number which starts out with a strong bias from regression to mean effects for levels.
2) No wonder Visa and Master Card are up 100% over the last year. Apparently they're predicting 20% a year growth in credit card use as other countries and affinity groups increase their use of credit. Its now "debit or credit" rather than "cash or check." I was particularly interested in all the companies catering to the credit card companies as they would stand to grow as the epyphytes do on Google. Such companies as Total System Services and Heartland Payment Services, Fidelity National Information Services, which do the paperwork for the credit cards. The analysts make much of the fact that the credit card companies don't take the risk on their transactions but pass it on the banks. And certainly the paperwork companies would seem to be doubly removed. They seem like good buys relative to their growth prospects, and the adage that they do lead in the recessions and lead in the recoveries should be tested as should the similar phenonenon for brokerage companies. I was fortunate to be thrust into this line of thinking by having my credit card stolen when a park office would only issue me a $10 permit if I paid by credit card. The next day someone used my number for a four-figure purchase. Apparently thieves have cameras that can scan the front and back of credit cards. They have to go up against the security companies that can match every transaction at a cash register to a photo ID, even months later. The ingenuity of the credit card thieves, as underlined by a recent article in Boardroom Reports, is impressive.
Even more impressive to me was the followup that the biggest credit card company came up with. When I called, an agent offered me a big loan at 1.75%. After putting me through 15 minutes of identifcation they noted the fee was 3% sign-on. When I remarked that I would have appreciate they telling me that at the beginning (I never lose my temper, after 10,000+ competitive squash matches), they immediately dropped it to 1% and offered to qualify me for a bigger loan. They put me through a five-question credit scoring test based on cash flow and occupation ("speculator.. I mean, executive").
The flexibility they show in price discrimination, and reducing consumer surplus, and gaining a customer with a short term premium was impressive. Combined with their projected 20% a year growth, as "credit or debit" rather than "cash or check" becomes the new mantra, they seem to have many of the elements of a good business.
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I have a theory that Americans (in general) are fundamentally unhappy people and to compensate for this they buy stuff. Anything that allows them to feed this behavior will probably be abused..
with respect to Visa and Mastercard. They have an incredible business model and they are the two real players in it who dominate their space. They market it well and profusely and you will see Visa alot at the Olympics. They also sponsored the Triple Crown races culminating this weekend. The barrier to entry into this market is huge. Twenty years and even 10 years ago you had Discover, American Express, Diners Club. The field here has really narrowed. I worked at Dean Witter when they rolled out Discover and it took them years until they became profitable. There will be no new players to this market going forward. Think of them as Coke and Pepsi. Where is RC cola, and some of the others from years ago?
As with McDonalds’ once they built out the US they began to reach globally to Russia, India, Asia. I am sure that Visa and MC are doing this with their business plans now.
I played cards with a group of average people Saturday night. There were 3 policemen, a corrections officer, two a/c repairmen and another. Their concerns were putting gasoline in their cars, food on their tables, buying cigarettes and beer and paying for their utilities with the left over.
My point is that all these things can and are being purchased with credit cards because they don’t carry the cash or have the money to pay for it. People now use credit cards to feed their kids at fast food restaurants.
Final note. It is documented that we are a nation of spenders and not savers. And when it gets bad people drink more, they smoke more They won’t give that up no matter what happens in the world. And they still have to eat.
was the plunge team ordered in the markets at 10AM when LEH started their call? or was the housing news sufficient for now?
Why can’t Federer beat Nadal in Paris?
gabe, I think the Israeli threat to attack Iran (which would lead to higher oil prices) and one more of the usual suspects calling for $150 oil just in time for the Independence Day (soon to be changed to Dependence Day) had something to do with it as well. They just can’t give up on that magic number for some strange reason and will keep predicting it until and unless they see it.
The book Super Crunchers by Ian Ayres gave a vivid account on this. By analysing your spending habit, the credit card company already knew what your wanted even before you do….Chilling. I think the credit scoring test was just a familarity and it will make no difference if you had answered speculator.
There are, of course, scenarios in which Visa/MC won’t do as well. As the middle class spends and spends, at some point it can’t pay, the banks take the credit loss, and Visa/MC see lower volumes. It may work to pay with your credit card what you can’t pay in cash for a few years, but a prolonged recession, or unemployment back to 70s levels will seriously hamper Visa/MC profits. The analogous companies are FedEx/UPS — they don’t take a direct credit-linked risk in a recession, but the lower volume hurts them.
As far as overseas expansion, it’s not clear that the same epyphytes thrive in all climates. So if you end up with Visa/MC hurting in the US, but thriving in new markets, you may see blooms on companies other than those mentioned above.
Why can't Federer beat Nadal in Paris?
Of note today, The Chrysler building is in negotiations with the Sovereign trust fund out of Abu Dyabi to purchase 75% of the property for 800 million petro dollars. Last month The GM building was purchased by Sovereign funds from Qatar and Kuwait.
Reminds one of the Japanese who purchased lots of US property when they were flush with capital 20 years ago. Which other international sovereign funds will follow?
To Anon and Mulholland. Why not use a real name. Or call yourself Maxwell Smart or something creative. To answer the obvious Nobody beats Nadal in Paris or anywhere on clay. Nobody beats Federer in Wimbledon. Period move on in life.
sl.
Debit or Credit? I don’t know. You see, when my debit card is used the funds only come out of my checking account at the end of each 30 day period. On paper the funds are debited but the funds do not actually leave the bank until the end of the 30 day periods. Banks keep funds on hand longer, I actually earn more interest, and the merchant services still get the fee. The retailer is paid at the end of their period. So, is that debit or credit with 30 days good as cash? This really puts capital to work as both in play, in float, and available for reserve requirements.
Dear Victor,
In regards to your statement(June 4th, 2008 - 10:00 pm):
“Mr. Evans is back on a much more civil basis with his shorting ideas. And ultimately, he will learn that this is guaranteed to lead him into oblivioun because of the drift, and the institutional assymmetres. The recent respite that the shorts have had, a eight year one, indeed, is merely to create more pockets of frictional contribution during the next decade.” vic
I cannot agree with you more that “ultimately” (read eventually) inevitably comes to pass. It’s all a question of when? Relative to the past few days, do you have anything further to add?
Whistling my way and civilly towards oblivion,
lon