Apr

24

Valdez Alaska is at the edge of the civilized world with literally millions of square miles of wilderness several hundred feet from your doorstep. The size is beyond comprehension. Each ridge and valley and glacier in the close by mountains can each contain Manhattan and there are scores of peaks and glaciers in each area, and thousands of peaks stretch off in the distance. As for Global warming, two days running had record cold temperatures for April and the glaciers are the size of the Hudson river stretching off into the distance. The amount of knowledge the heli guides must learn at a minimum to survive is huge, but attempting to understand the millions of changing variables out in the mountains is beyond human ability. Traders often consider the market to be complex, and having many random variables, but even then, the horizon is limited to mostly fixed rules, and a relatively closed system. The open system of rapidly changing and huge variations in weather, snow, wind, at various aspects,locations, altitudes, is huge. The risk is death. Yet many young or adventurous crave the adrenaline rush of flying around the steep craggy peaks and standing at the top of a precipitous chute through cliffs in deep and variable snow conditions. It is like an addictive drug. The risk of death is real, and the skill level required is very high. Mental attitude, physical condition, and skill in riding the conditions are prerequisites.

The roar of avalanches regularly interrupt the absolute silence of the clear and still mountain air. The helicopter lands at the top of steep craggy peak, with less than a 4 foot area or less at the top to get out and huddle atop with the equipment. On each side there is a 3,000 foot drop, straight down, with cliffs on both sides. The guide tests the snow to try determine is stability and tendency to avalanche and determines the safest line through the cliffs to the glacier below. The hill is so steep that when standing next to it that you can touch it with your hand. Skiing down through the powder sets off "slough" which slides down the hill in increasing cascades and must be avoided. Huge crevasses big enough to swallow a helicopter are covered by unknown snow bridges and must be avoided. The debris from avalanches with the consistency of concrete must be avoided. Safely maneuvering to the bottom is a thrill up there with winning a big trade on high leverage.

Valez is a sleepy little town with one grocery, a few hotels and restaurants, and a handful of rental cars. People are friendly and don't seem to have much work in the winter. Things are cheap compared to Hawaii. People there are salt of the earth. Many Europeans were there with the strong Euro. I met Swiss and Germans who were friendlier than usual. The Serbs were there.

The study of snow is a complete science in itself. The natives are said to have 26 names for snow, but in fact there are hundreds of various snow conditions and combinations. Traders would be well advised for their survival to take similar notes and identify the conditions such as Vic has proposed in the table of elements. The guides have notebooks and check the temperatures of then snow at various depths. The take photos of the surfaces. They compare notes. The names of the snow they make up are "chalk", "sugar", "powder", "chowder". How about naming some of our market conditions? Today's early market was mushy with slough offs. Recent market action reminds me of the snow conditions. The snow falls and can set up. The prior condition and temperature of the surface affects its ability to adhere. So prior market conditions affect today's market action. If the conditions are unstable, the snow can build up tension, and then suddenly release in an avalanche. It seems that we have experiences such a phenomenon in the markets. April 23 for example in the after market small avalanche. This reflects the craggy peak from yesterday and the last few days causing an unstable underlayer and steep aspects making is hard for the new money coming in to have a stable base to adhere. On the other hand, a solid base, as in O'Neill type terms, might give a good surface for an ascent. There are crevasses in the market action that can by avoided by identifying conditions where they might occur. One can examine prior market action and determine how it might affect today's or tomorrows market conditions just as the guides test the snow to predict how today's run might go. For example some big steep runs in markets might presage more similar. Or a day of flat action might predict more, but after several days of flat mush at high altitude might increase risk of avalanches. It's a fun exercise.


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