Apr
24
The Run on Rice, from Alan Millhone
April 24, 2008 |
Several years ago peanut butter prices went through the roof. I simply quit eating it for a time till the price fell. I ate a lot of rice in Korea while stationed there in the Army. At that time people in the villages had out houses and the 'honey dippers' came through on Saturdays to bucket out the human waste and loaded it onto a large truck. When the honey dippers came the streets cleared! The waste they collected was taken somewhere to be spread and dried and later used on the fields for fertilizer of rice. Monday in Columbus, OH I ate at a favorite restaurant of mine, Polaris Grill, and had spicy Havana Mahi and rice and black beans and a nice sauce and veggies. I can see our own local Chinese carry-out having to boost prices soon due to rice increases. As with peanut butter, I will cut back on my rice consumption if necessary.
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Not making the front page of the NY Times is the fact that spot kansas wheat futures are down 11% year-to-date, and are down an impressive 40% from the 3/13/08 high. Minneapolis hard wheat is down even more.
Unless “this time is different,” once a grain market breaks in this fashion, it just keeps grinding lower and lower for months and months. It may be exciting to “call” the top. But much more profitable to point the boat downstream and let the tide carry you along…. [The Chair may even acknowledge that trend following in certain commodity markets makes economic and logical sense!]