Mar

14

Falling StarsI start by noting that about 10% of the S&P 500 have fallen this year at a rate of 80% or more for the year. I also note a surprising number of fallen stars, once $50+ stocks that just touched a bit below $20 as if that were the signal for accumulation. I note C, FNM, INTC, DELL, NVLS, and a number of lesser known. Many others are very close, such as General Motors and Pfizer. It's as if it were a signal for the analysts in these companies to issue a buy report once the margin buyers and weak longs have been extricated, and I have not overlooked this opportunity.


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23 Comments so far

  1. Anatoly Veltman on March 14, 2008 12:56 am

    I note: WM 46->9.91 among banks. BSC 172.61->50.49 among brokers. MBI 76->6.75 among monolines. S 23.42->6.67 among telecom. SHLD 195->85 among dept stores. HUM 88->33 among health. Finally, smell the SBUX 40->17!

  2. Lon Evans on March 14, 2008 2:37 am

    Dear Vic,

    Regarding, "It's as if it were a signal for the analysts in these companies to issue a buy report once the margin buyers and weak longs have been extricated."

    "It's as if . . ." is suppositional. Are you a trader, or a parasite? The parasite hopes only that the host will support it. Such support is its only hope. The trader in comparison, knows by experience, that there is no succor other than one's on wit. And he, or she, is tied to the reality that there is no ultimate succor. We all know of the weight of the market, we all battle against it, and some of us are overcome by it. Have you been overcome?

    Take a look back at Standard & Poor's daily evaluation of the Nasdaq debacle (circa 2001). The only advice given was that 'the current situation is but a blip in an overall strong market.' What did NASDAQ end in tumbling to? I do believe that it was but a paltry 20% of its high.

    So suddenly the 'God's' over at SnP are telling us that the sub-prime horror has been "priced in."

    These morons, these 'Gods,' who completely missed the total collapse of the international credit markets are now to suggest even a modicum of understanding of the current situation?

    lon

  3. steve on March 14, 2008 10:15 am

    To Lon Evans:
    I am always entertained by your commentary. They may very well be incipient however I think they would be embraced if you omitted the personal attacks. I marvel as to how you find the time to review this inadequate website and blog with such soliliquy-like veracity.

    I note that recently Dick Bove banking analyst par excellance, mentioned that C is a once in a generation buying opportunity. He made such a bold statement back in the financial crush of the early nineties. His comments back then were early but they were ultimately prescient.

    To the Chair: I suspect when the dust settles on this bear market and the recovery begins, those in the tech arena set to rebound will be the best of the best. I must go back to Goog sometime I just know not when. I know I would prefer aapl to Dell. If one is looking to try on a straw hat during a blizzard look to Ambac, Mbia and Sallie mae.

    Regards,

    Sjl The j stands for jehoshaphat

  4. Lon Evans on March 14, 2008 1:38 pm

    Dear Steve,

    I know; it is problematic, this going for the jugular thing. Please understand that I don’t experience the offensive content as a personal attack, but rather one relative to specific statements and/or opinions. As I once mentioned, my view of reality is somewhat different from that of the majority. I have Asperger’s Syndrome, which though offering some wonderful benefits does leave us odd birds lacking in popularly accepted social graces.

    I do appreciate your evaluation. And please trust that I find this site a wealth of information both wise and pertinent. As well, trust that I understand my limitations and do work towards improvement. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to understand myself better in the reflection of your measured comment.

    By the way, Jehoshaphat has to be one of the coolest names ever.

    Lon

    P.S. I guess the wonks over at SnP somehow missed Bear relative to yesterday’s announcement that sup-prime was all accounted for. Go figure.

  5. Marco on March 14, 2008 1:42 pm

    Corrections/ Bear Markets are not only a function of price, but of time as well. We are still early in the recession talk, and the negative news flow continues. When trying to bottom fish, it is better to be a little late then a little early.

    Good luck to all.

  6. Nigel Davies on March 14, 2008 7:02 pm

    Lon,

    You should know better than to use Asperger’s as an excuse, why haven’t you cured yourself yet? The fact that the experts think there’s been an ‘outbreak’ probably means that most Aspies go ‘into remission’.

    I guess the experts overlooked this possibility of survivorship bias (Aspies no longer testing positive as they get older) because they’ve declared Asperger’s to be incurable. Why would they do this? I figure it’s a kind of mass Freudian slip connected to funding - who’ll support research into a condition in which there’s no outbreak and most of the sufferers effectively cure themselves?

    Nigel

  7. Anatoly Veltman on March 14, 2008 8:05 pm

    Anatoly Veltman adds:

    My work in December was pointing toward 1200 area; and I, for one, would not be surprised if we printed there as early as Monday! I do, however, see a major reversal setting up from there; and because the reversal will likely take place intra-day, those individual stock bargains will not be had by too many investors. Even more interesting is dollar acceleration past 4 weeks. There, I also see a V-shape reversal next week

  8. Lon Evans on March 15, 2008 2:23 am

    Nigel,

    To date, I've been right, and, well, you've been wrong. As this ain't a spitting contest, but rather one where real money is on the line . . . put up or shut up!

    Anatoly,

    So we are kindred souls. 1200 is golden. You're Russian, I take it? The "Children of Theatre Street," Pushkin, and the "Russian Soul." I, myself, possess a melancholy disposition.

    Let's continue in this wonderful game, and let us hope the best for the best.

    lon

  9. Lon Evans on March 15, 2008 4:26 am

    Asperger's Syndrome is a biological condition. Our Amygdala is much smaller and far more dense. For one to 'cure' himself would be as reasonable as demanding that a brown eyed individual suddenly (and miraculously) demand sky-blue peepers instead. There has been yet found a single autistic who has "cured" him or herself. lon

  10. Stephen Daedalus on March 15, 2008 9:57 am

    Lon, Are people with Asperger's less risk averse? That's the outcome of impairment to the amygdala and/or ventromedial prefrontal cortex according to a famous series of experiments– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_gambling_task

  11. Nigel Davies on March 15, 2008 1:51 pm

    Lon,

    You must surely know that the test for Asperger’s takes the form of questions and observations vis a vis someone’s behaviour, it has nothing to do with measuring your Amygdala or any other part of your anatomy for that matter.

    Nigel

  12. Nigel Davies on March 15, 2008 7:22 pm

    Lon Evans wrote:

    >To date, I've been right, and, well, you've been wrong. As this >ain't a spitting contest, but rather one where real money is on >the line . . . put up or shut up!

    Lon,

    Not sure what you're talking about here. Are you confusing me with some imaginary collective identity? What do you believe I have been wrong about?

  13. Lon Evans on March 16, 2008 2:57 am

    Nigel,

    Past tense as to testing, which only acts to confirm my assumption of your ignorance. In the old days the tests, hardly scientific, were subjective evaluations gleaned from ‘testing’ created by no-Aspies. Today, utilizing fMRI, it is possible to more perfectly hone in on the one given biological marker apparently indicative of the condition, the amygdala. Yes, there continue to be “questions and observations,” but they are about as varied and subjective as is the practice of psychoanalysis, and as about as efficacious. And they are but an aspect of indicators considered in a final evaluation.

    Stephen,

    In particular instances, the current data suggests that we are more risk adverse or appear to be. The most obvious trait would be the avoidance of eye contact. This, among the neuro-typicals, is read as a fear response. But after some 45 years with the condition, and much thought concerning it, I’ve come to disagree. I counter that we’re not so much risk adverse as highly sensitized. Most, if not all, of our sensory apparatus are more acute than is the norm. Simplistically, what you might experience as a hearty hello, seems to one of my ilk an irritating bellow. Responding to amygdala “impairment,” I don’t believe that it is accepted, or even suggested, that the configuration of an Aspies limbic system is an impairment. Rather it is a difference.

    For any who might suggest such an “impairment,” I can affirm that few can focus as intently, for as protracted a period and glean as much information from a series of day charts as can I. This has proven an invaluable gift in playing the day game. Extrapolating years of honing this ability towards a longer view suggested that I invest in purchasing puts as the SnP looked to fail its second top in the mid 1500’s. To date, I’ve been rewarded.

    As is always the case, no one knows what the Mistress will finally decide to do, but my hunch is a low in the vicinity (+ or -) of 1200.

    And finally for Nigel,

    Before offering ‘learned’ opinion, you might chose to do more than to cursorily google a term. I do find it arrogant that you would attempt to lecture one ’suffering’ from the condition as to its realities.

    lon

  14. steve leslie on March 16, 2008 10:48 am

    One thought that struck me recently is when one plays no limit hold em, The lure and inherent danger of the game is that at any one time one can lose his entire "fortune" or "table stakes" if you will on one hand. The risk and reward can be large, and at times very large. Thus one must be aware of this constantly in no limit hold em. For if one loses substantially, one must go back to ones bank and purchase more chips. And the grind begins once again. Many professional poker players i.e. those who derive their living from poker shy away from no-limit for that reason. It is the one style of poker that requires the greatest amount of patience and fortitude. The same with stocks and futures. A major misstep can be fatal and one needs to beware to be a very careful bear (forgive me A.A. Milne). Thus the comparisons should be obvious and I hope helpful. SJL and the J stands for jocular.

  15. Nigel Davies on March 16, 2008 11:31 am

    Lon,

    Could you possibly answer just one question with a straight answer. Have you had your amygdala measured or not? Perhaps your formal diagnosis take the form of an interview. Or maybe you diagnosed yourself…

    The problem is that there are a lot of people running around these days who claim they have Asperger’s without any kind of formal diagnosis. They see it as a way of avoiding any responsibility for their rudeness, if not an actual licence to be rude. At the same time they can claim to be in the same category as the likes of Beethoven, Newton, Wittgenstein and others, so it therefore becomes the perfect cover for obnoxious egomaniacs.

    Now you wouldn’t be one of those, would you? It’s been very noticeable that you switch quickly to insult-mode whenever someone asks you a straight question. You poor, misunderstood Aspie you…

  16. Stephen on March 16, 2008 12:59 pm

    Lon,

    David Brooks’ op-ed mentions Aspergers this week,
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/14/opinion/14brooks.html

    In the news recently there was also this New Yorker essay, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/08/20/070820fa_fact_page

    and this New York Times story, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/04/health/04well.html

  17. Lon Evans on March 16, 2008 2:18 pm

    Nigel,

    Yes, I’ve been through a battery of diagnostic evaluations, including the fMRI.

    Cheers,

    me (poor, misunderstood Aspie me)

  18. Lon Evans on March 16, 2008 2:39 pm

    Stephen,

    I’ve read the NY Times story concerning the model, but the other two I was ignorant of.

    David Brooks is off the mark (but should we wonder at this?) as Aspies exhibit exactly his evaluation’s opposite in our social interactions. We bond very closely and with great affection to those near us, our loved ones. The greatest difficulty we realize is in socialization with bosses and co-workers. As well, we hardly ever achieve success as ‘Captians of Industry’ or ‘Power Brokers.’ Much of his tone does suggest a certain envy. The person he seems to be describing sounds more the narcissistic megalomaniac, than the individual experiencing Asperger’s.

    The New Yorker essay was interesting. I can vouch for much of what the author describes, but not all. I glossed the article, but will take the time to read more fully from it.

    Thanks for the references, even if they were offered as a damning cloaked in faint praise.

    lon

  19. Brian Kuebler on March 16, 2008 10:06 pm

    I hope you weren’t viewing BSC at 30 bucks as an attractive fallen star.

  20. steve leslie on March 17, 2008 9:50 am

    With respect to Bear Stearns I understand that Mr. Lewis stands to lose over 1 Billion Dollars. Was it Sen. Dirkson who said a billion here a billion there and suddenly you are talking about real money? I find it remarkable that a company so respected and venerable as Bear Stears should be forced to do today what they will. As shortly as a year ago the stock was 170; this year it was at 80; Friday it was at 30; now it is at 2 and will be bailed out by JP Morgan. Market Cap losses of nearly 200 Billion in a little more than a year. I have been doing this for a long time and I can not remember anything that comes close to this. Perhaps Drexel and LTCM. SocGen? Enron was pure corruption so this does not compare. The mismanagement of this once great company is on Biblical proportions. I will leave this up to the experts to contrast and compare. When the dust settles there will be huge debate over whether the Fed had to intervene. There also will be an enormous analysis as to when the government must provide a bailout and how they shall do so. Also there will be many who might be calling a bottom or a bottoming process. The market can be like an aircraft carrier and it takes time to turn around. There are very many questions out there right now. I am content to sit and wait and wait longer if necessary. Let the bears and bulls tussle and look for a trend to develop. The great Laszlo Birinyi said "I don't listen to what people say, I watch what they do." Watch what the really smart ones are doing now! The masses will follow but much later along the curve. sjl. J for jaundiced.

  21. Lon Evans on March 18, 2008 3:02 am

    Dear Mr. Leslie,

    Wasn’t it you that not long past chided me in demanding that as far as you were concerned “the sky was not falling?”

    What a difference a day makes. Yes, I gloat. Just as you did so easily in very too distant past!

    So how are your positions doing in this very recent and necessary present?

    Care to tell?

    lon

  22. steve leslie on March 18, 2008 10:11 am

    To Lon Evans: You make some interesting points. Why can’t you leave it at that. There are many who contribute here who I find to be extraordinarily insightful brilliant and helpful far weathier and brilliant than you but are not so shallow and starving for attention. You on the other hand want to turn everything into some distorted argument and have a need for affirmation and a quest for dominance.

    I notice that the really great ones in their professions don’t bore the room with their previous accomplishments. Take a cue from Tiger Woods Wayne Gretzky Lt or MJ.

    You live behind some self-created cloak of secrecy. Then you bring up some sort of defense that you have Asperger’s. What in the world does that have to do with anything. I suspect you show up on other websites and conduct similar campaigns. If you want to construct a positive dialogue you may look me up offline.

    In the words of Jack Nickolson “either way, I don’t give a damn.”

    sjl. The word for today is laconic.

  23. Lon Evans on March 19, 2008 2:47 am

    Mr. Leslie,

    How am I to look you up off-line? And should I be able to do so, are you, honestly, the one with whom to “construct a positive dialogue?”

    What “cloak of secrecy?”

    Why does the mention of Asperger’s demand a Pavlovian kill response from the likes of you and Nigel?

    Sorry Leslie, but I don’t “bring up some interesting points,” I nail positive opportunities (care to take such arrogance on?). So is the sky falling, is it not, or what?

    Finally, if ‘ya don’t give a damn,’ then why the vitriolic response?

    lon

    p.s. Some 130 handles in the money, and more to come. And that’s not including the day game.

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