Mar

5

AltmanIn the March 3 edition of Barron's there was an article by A. Bary entitled "Risky Bets". The author cites a number of stocks that are down 40% or more from their highs; he believes investing in these companies could be very profitable if the credit markets begin to normalize and the economy recovers.

There are a number of companies other than those he cites that are down 40-50% or more that may be two or three baggers when the stock market comes back. The question is, "Are they reliable companies or future bankrupts"? I've been using Value Line and Morningstar to determine the financial risk of some of these beaten down companies.

However, I'm also aware of a formula called Altman's Z-Score that predicts future bankrupts with 85% accuracy among stocks with a low Price to Book Value. A Google search yields a number of articles describing the approach and financial data to use.

The data to use are:

1) Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT)

2) Total Assets

3) Net Sales

4) Market Value of Equity

5) Total Liabilities

6) Current Assets

7) Current Liabilities

8) Retained Earnings

I have, with varying degrees of success found these data in the Yahoo, CNBC-MSNBC, and Morningstar Financial Pages. But the data are 6 or more months old or incomplete. Value Line was a big disappointment.

1) Is anyone aware of where more up-to-date and complete financial data may be found on the web?

2) Or is there a web page that lists companies along with their Z-Scores ?

Gordon Haave replies:

For those of you with Bloomberg (the system, not the mayor), there is a Z-Score function built in.

Larry Williams suggests:

For more up to data company financial data try: MSN Money or Kiplinger.

Allen Gillespie cautions:

Altman Z-Scores is designed to work for certain industries. You might have to use several different scoring methods to cover all industries.

Eric Falkenstein offers:

I just created a website with free default probabilities for public companies, US and worldwide. Better than anything else I've seen, and I've seen 'em all.


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