Feb

27

Aphorisms, from Alan Millhone

February 27, 2008 |

"Liars figure, but figures don't lie" was one of my late father's favorite expressions. Just saw that the median home price has fallen 4% in the past three years and new home sales are the slowest in nearly 13 years. I suspect OPEC will announce the same production levels and gasoline prices will go up another dime till it reaches $4.00 a gallon at the pumps. Also I notice a lot of carpetbaggers are crawling out of the woodwork offering to 'help' those who are losing their homes. With the influx of tourists pouring into the USA with empty suitcases, the Euro might become a secondary currency in America. Our Dollar is of little value in most of the world. My favorite saying? "In G-d We Trust, all others pay cash."

Kim Zussman extends:

All big declines start as small declines
Most small declines are reversed

Most small declines are reversed
Except the ones you buy

Most big advances test neutral
Except the ones you hold, which reverse

Stocks drift upward over long periods
Except those in which you have overplus to invest

Declining periods are shorter than advancing periods
But when you focus on your P&L time stands still

Free markets work best
But not without the Fed put

Human capital is the best investment
Outside of commodities

Stocks and real estate are the best investments
Until you notice how well they do

Bull markets start the moment you decide never to invest in stocks

Success in what matters scales inversely to IQ and directly with charm

If you aren't laughing at yourself then you don't get the joke

Unlike women, chicken is unappetizing when anatomically correct

Trading success is the vector sum of {thorough research}+{strict discipline} in positive luck-space

Bald people would give anything for hair
Hairy people will do anything to get rich
Rich people will pay anything for love
Love is the main cause of hair loss


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4 Comments so far

  1. Anatoly Veltman on February 27, 2008 1:09 pm

    An aphorism: “When I hear it can’t be done: I know, I’m close to success!”

    Yes, EUR is projecting to 1.53 handle following its gapping action from 1.48 last two days (it would suit well to fill these gaps first, by the way). Which, in any case, is not the dimension of up-side risk that would scare me.

    What should be scary to commodity late-comers - its the spiking action in things like Wheat and industrial metals in recent days. The pending sharp correction will be big “figures”; but those figures “will lie”. After all, it will only be a correction

  2. Anonymous on February 27, 2008 3:32 pm

    Another aphorism from CNBC anchor this afternoon, noticing Oil sliding below $100.00: "Hmm, funny how it sounds good for stocks"…

  3. acetrader on February 28, 2008 11:16 am

    funny to say oil is “sliding” when it drops a buck or two…

  4. Lon Evans on March 1, 2008 3:30 am

    Here, here, Anatoly,f

    Markets never bottom until the majority go short. Nor do they top until the same go long.

    In regards to last weeks failed rally:

    “Buy the rumor, sell the news.”

    Yeah, trite . . . , obvious . . . , and so . . . , well . . . , last decade! Yet ’so’ perfectly accurate as to this previous week’s play. Maybe the occasional old saw still maintains a tooth or two?

    Is it vain-glory for the ‘gloating bear’ to suggest that 1320 beckons as the next best feeding ground for my ilk? Should we chew through that level, 1300 offers itself as an appetizer in preparation for the main course of 1275. As always, we’ll just have to wait for Mistress Market to make up her mind.

    lon

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