Feb

24

VNWe are all accustomed to the wisdom of "the threat is worse than the realization" which comes from the boardgame world, and Tom Wiswell and Nigel Davies have written about it. But one wonders if it's symmetric with "the hope is better than the realization," as an event like the 25 S&P point half-hour rally on the hope of a bailout, a shuffling of the risk from one to another, would be prone to a revulsion, or a 25 point down swing or some such in the near future when hope meets reality or as Galton said about Spencer, when the facts meet the hypothesis.

Nigel Davies suggests:

One way to look at this is to view weak emotional responses as being attached by elastic to the roller coaster of perceived reality. And this leads to two of the great problems in games and speculation, one's perception and the feelings this then engenders. It may also be that 'science' is no answer here except to add a layer of false confidence to already skewed beliefs. It seems very easy to prove whatever one sets out to prove, and to be too rigorous usually means saying nothing at all.


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