Feb
19
Housing, from Kim Zussman
February 19, 2008 |
Robert Shiller's site contains historic data on house prices from 1890-2007. Notwithstanding any biases contained therein, I checked the rolling 10-year real house price appreciation and found that the 10 years ending 2006 and 2007 were the highest. Here are the top 10:
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That’s interesting as both the 1950s and recent times appear to be driven by demographics. I compared the 2001 recession to 1957-58, because we didn’t see declines in housing starts that recessions normally see. Even the 1953-54 recession held up a bit better than normal. I don’t have data from the 1950s on prices but since then doesn’t really show any price drops, only flattening. You see the swings though if you deflate the numbers and view prices in real terms. What’s so odd since the early 1990s is prices rose straight through into 2006 even factoring in inflation. Normally, prices decline back to the previous cycle high during recessions; so, this cycle would have another $10,000 or so to go in real dollars. Maybe would have to study England to see a secular change. Growth rates of prices by any measure have already declined below previous lows having peaked February 2004.