Feb

11

One can't fail to notice that (-80% later) there is not a single analyst's sell rating on either MBIA or Ambac! A disturbing silence, in my opinion.

Sam Eisenstadt writes in:

For a negative statement on both companies, see the Value Line Investment Survey Summary & Index, dated Feb 8, 2008. Both stocks are currently ranked in Group 5 (poor) for Timeliness. Ambac was lowered to a Group 4 (unfavorable) on 8/3/2007 and MBIA to a Group 4 on 2/9/2007.

Our Ranking System has not been asleep at the switch.


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3 Comments so far

  1. gabe on February 11, 2008 1:15 pm

    analysts are notorious for being 1 day too late. see enron and others. not sure who's listening to them anymore but in this case it might just be so obvious they don't even bother:

    Bill Gross : "How could Ambac, through the magic of its triple-A rating, with equity capital of less than $5bn, insure the debt of the state of California, the world’s sixth-largest economy? How could an investor in California’s municipal bonds be comforted by a company that during a potential liquidity crisis might find the capital markets closed to it, versus the nation’s largest state with its obvious ongoing taxing authority?"

  2. Ronald Weber on February 12, 2008 4:58 am

    Reply to Sam Eisenstadt:

    Sorry Sam, I was refering to the Bloomberg analysts ANR function. But congratulations to your reaction last year.

  3. Curmudgeon 3415 on February 13, 2008 1:18 pm

    Gabe: isn't it interesting that a day after you post Bill Gr*ss' sarcastic comment about how preposterous and infeasible the very idea of municipal bond insurance is (a private little company insuring the debt of a mighty city or state, LOL!) (and he was so persuasive that you almost convinced me)…

    none other than W$rren B#%%~t should volunteer (for a sizeable fee of course) to take over the municipal insurance business of Ambac and MBIA.

    Looks like it is not so ridiculous a business after all when seen from Omaha.

    Of course the monolines told W$rren "FU!". They know the economics of their business also and aren't about to let someone else in on it.

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