Feb

3

1. There is no such thing as a bear market, only markets that have gone down a lot from a previous high in a reasonable time frame.

2. The market had its best week in 5 years two weeks after having the worst week in 5 years.

3. When the vol rises to above 30, expect a 1-2% gain in next two days with say a 90% prob.

4. The differential between the discount rate and the 10 year rate is an excellent predictor of short and long term movements in the market.

5. The market likes to set a big minimum at the beginning of the week and all the limits downs have occured on such days.

6. The knowledge of a big forced seller in the market will filter out and effect everything and the market will go to unprecedented low levels until the sales are requited.

7. The Fed chair thanked Milton Friedman for insuring with his research that the Fed would never again cause a depression by tightening the money supply during a time of economic doldrum and we may thank Milton Friedman and the Fed chair, and Mr Kerviel for insuring that no such depression or recession will be induced again by such activity.

8. The market will go back up along the same path that it went down. i.e. Lobagola lives. (Remember Lobagola's  story about the elephants).

9. Buy and hold must not be leveraged too high for it to work .

10. The tried and true patterns are the most dangerous during times of crisis. (Beware of patterns with a 90% chance of success).


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22 Comments so far

  1. Should a bull market always be expected (ex ante)? on February 3, 2008 5:44 pm

    This list says buy stocks conditional upon a bunch of different things. As the list grows the recommendation asymptotically is just to buy stocks unconditionally! Conditional upon what would one not buy stocks?

  2. You're not that naive, Vic! on February 3, 2008 7:08 pm

    Isn’t this a bit naive, thinking as long as there is plenty of money (ie inflation) nothing wrong will ever happen?

  3. gabe on February 3, 2008 7:40 pm

    11. the way to leave your mark as an insecure banker trying to get out of his predecessor’s shadow is to be in the history books under “how to destroy a country franchise”: cut the cost of money by 30% and dilute your fellow man at the first sign of market decline caused by junior french traders on a thin trading day.

    12. (corollary to 11) if you and your central banker friends know there’s about $20trln of CDOs hanging out there and optimistically estimate only half of that will vanish, the fiat money system might cease to exist anyway so pull a rio trade with the country’s money just for spite.

  4. George Parkanyi on February 3, 2008 10:52 pm

    Giants 17-14 Patriots. NFC team wins the Super-Bowl.

    That settles it then - bull market. :)

    Cheers,
    George

  5. Q on February 3, 2008 11:41 pm

    **Sigh** we need to go back on the gold standard, although volatility is great at times.

    By the way, a team originally hailing from the NFL won. Since bear markets don’t exist, and consequently “savage bear” markets don’t exist would number #10 apply to the famous super bowl indicator with tonights win? If so, I guess there’s a high probability of the signal being bullish and the dow rising again.

  6. MOSHE LIBER on February 4, 2008 4:49 am

    what is the tried and true patterns

    thanks
    moshe

  7. George Parkanyi on February 4, 2008 12:35 pm

    Hey Q,

    Going back to the gold standard would be great - if you want a crushing depression.

    What is money? It is a collectively accepted medium of exchange that incents people to go out there and build stuff, grow things, push paper, flip burgers - whatever it is they do - in an efficient way. We are highly specialized now in how we contribute to the economy (I don’t know how to grow hops for example, but I do like to drink beer), and we have, appropriately, learned to monetize human economic activity itself.

    People are far more valuable a resource than what is basically a rock. With currency we have created a benchmark for human effort (services) and output (goods), and supply and demand for the TYPE of effort does the rest. (If you don’t like CEO, rock-star, or pro athlete salaries - don’t get mad at CEO’s, rock-stars and athletes, get mad at whoever is creating the demand.)

    In the developing nations, there has been a very significant recent surge in human activity that is driving new wealth creation. That’s a huge output that is still growing the world economy, and healthily backing all that paper, plastic, and those computer screen blips.

    Gold is limited in supply, and would be difficult to efficiently match to human effort and output in a rapid-fire global economy. You can only mine so much, so if your rate of mining it falls below the demand for capital, you’ll get high interest rates and contraction - with all that entails. Credit, the way it is created by central banks, is more of a breathing thing, and can finance, and scale with, human activity in a much more flexible and natural manner (unless it is overly manipulated - which is now far more difficult to do because of globalization.).

    It’s nice to think about the good’ol days, but were they really that good?

    Cheers,
    George

  8. rob d on February 4, 2008 1:35 pm

    ummmm….so does 10 cancel 3?

  9. Bear Markets « FIT for proFIT on February 4, 2008 3:36 pm

    […] February 4, 2008 Here are Ten lessons from Recent Bear Markets by Victor on Daily Speculations. First and last ones are my personal favorites. Posted by prashanttiwari Filed in 1 […]

  10. Phillip on February 4, 2008 8:44 pm

    what does the chair mean by discount rate, the Fed’s or that which is applied to stocks?

  11. Eric Blumenschein on February 4, 2008 8:57 pm

    #10 and #3 - LOL, I love it.

  12. Tom on February 4, 2008 9:54 pm

    Vitaliy Katsenelson makes the case for why a bear market just started, http://contrarianedge.com/2008/02/04/down-to-the-last-drop-of-profit-growth

  13. steve leslie on February 5, 2008 10:55 am

    I think this runs hand in hand.

    The instigation of a bear market is due initially to a change in the overall psychology. Meaning that some event changes perception. With this market, it was the subprime mess that was mentioned last spring. Initially the news was discounted because optimism was high and the timing was wrong. The information came out during a healthy bullish phase. But then more bad information began to surface, and then investors began to look for bad signs ie.chinks in the armor or cockroaches if you will. When numbers began to turn out bad on other fronts, concerns began to rise dramatically and the psychological balance shifted to bearish conversations. The glass suddenly began to become less full and the vision less clear and experts suddenly began looking for more bearish data to examine and focus on.

    Compare this to the NE Patriots. Three weeks ago they were being anointed as the greatest team ever, the greatest organization ever and Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback ever. Now having lost one game, suddenly the paradigm shifts and pundits change their direction to just where the discussion should be and where the Pats fit in history. Now if the Patriots were a stock like Google or Apple or IBM then some would begin to look more closely at this entity and argue that perhaps the Pats were overrated and need to be “revalued”.

    Just like markets and stocks things become overvalued because people overvalue them. They buy into the esprit de corp. Just examine Enron sometime. Or any bull market for that matter.

    I like to think of Lou Holtz former Notre Dame fottball coach. He said “You are never as good as you think you are nor as bad, you are somewhere in between.”

    sl.

  14. David Tyree on February 5, 2008 1:16 pm

    Let me preface this by saying that I am not a gold bug; in fact I agree that Gold is a useless rock. But what I don’t understand is the need to increase money supply to match human effort and output. If output rises while money supply stays the same then prices fall and purchasing power rises- what’s the problem with that? In this situation the interest rate on excess capital would be the risk spread above the output/efficiency gain, or deflation; so if output grows 3% a year and thus prices deflate by 3%, then it may make sense to loan at 1%..and if you can’t earn a return above the rate of growth then someone else should be using that capital. In this environment monet supply stays constant without bankers getting a cut of the confiscation in the form of Federal-reserve sponsored inflation- why is this bad?

  15. Tom on February 5, 2008 1:23 pm

    This needs to be tested, but when corporate profit margins or PE ratios (compared to bond yields) are at multi-decade highs a bear market could ensue with high probability. (Only the former condition is true now.)

  16. Bankrupt Liberal on February 5, 2008 10:01 pm

    “Should a bull market always be expected ex ante?”. What’s the economic value of correctly predicting the end of days? If there is anything to be learned from Dr. Niederhoffer it is surely that optimism is an imperative. Or in the chair’s own words, “I would add that the reason we don’t hear from those absolutely convinced that we are in the midst of a bear market is that they have been, are or will shortly be, broke, morally and financially, metaphorically speaking.”

  17. Lon Evans on February 5, 2008 10:34 pm

    Call it what you will Vic. Such semantic play in no way sours my current affection for puts.

    Second down draft, boys. Trading 101, lower highs, lower lows, be short.

    Let’s see if this fall takes us down into the low 1200’s. That would be grand.

    lon

  18. George Parkanyi on February 6, 2008 7:02 pm

    Double-bottom; roaring bull. :)

    Cheers Lon,
    George

  19. Tom on February 7, 2008 12:24 am

    Lon Evans,

    At what level in the S&P would you sell your puts?

  20. Lon Evans on February 7, 2008 4:20 pm

    To George and Tom (respectively),

    George, I do enjoy the tinge of rage that you bulls can’t help but evidence when confronted with a knowledgeable bear. Had I listened to the advice of your ilk, I would be flat today, rather than some 130 handles in the money. So far you guys have been nothing but wrong. So in response to your advice, “What Me Worry?”

    Tom,

    I’m looking initially at the 1220 to 1230 range. As we begin to thrash around at those levels, I will be watching. So in answer to your question, I imagine that my stop will be set at 1230 once we break through that level.

    But I will add. We’ve yet to know, really know, what the hell is going on with all the worthless dreg that the snake oil salesmen sold so assiduously in the last few years. I don’t believe we’ve come near to seeing the end in regards to the sub-prime mess. Lord, how many times have we heard, “Well this will finally put sub-prime to rest.” Huh?

    Therefore, I’m considering that this market may very well do a nose dive into the low 1100’s.

    And finally, George, are you suggesting that I cover at the 1260 level? Well, thanks for the advice, but I think I’ll hold on for the brass ring. Oh yeah, If your interested, I’ve got some calls I’d be willing to sell you. Interested?

    Cheers,

    lon

  21. George Parkanyi on February 8, 2008 9:11 pm

    Hey Lon,

    I don’t feel rage being confronted by a knowledgeable bear. I was just playing with you, and hope you make money. In fact you already have. Good on you. If the S&P500 goes to 1200, who really cares? More bargains. (600 would suck.) :)

    If the market tanks further, I’ll certainly have some self-doubt, but my main strategy is a long-term allocation one. It involves switching between groups of fixed name stocks based on their relative price movement against each other over fixed time periods. I’m not as concerned about short-term capital preservation as I am about the share-compounding the strategy entails - which works in any type of market. (The whole approach is full detailed on my blog and is easily testable.)
    The volatility you get near the bottom of a bear market plays into that - although I re-iterate, I’m human and it WILL be uncomfortable to take a big short-term drawdown on the overall portfolio if that happens. BUT - one does not want to miss the powerful rally that brings you out of the bear market (or a correction).

    I’ve tried timing before and I just can’t do it. So I think it’s better just to stay fully invested around a specific plan and let the market take you where it goes. Typical bear markets don’t last more than 18-24 months, so it’s going to be over soon either way. If we go into a major depression then that would be a drag, but I my strategy will still work unless stocks seize up and just stand still.

    Cheers,
    George

  22. Pengopol on February 9, 2008 4:26 am

    The data do not support your VIX>30 trading rule. So much for your "scientific method."

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