Jan

15

Standard and Poors's investment strategist is quoted as saying that the stock market has risen in 12 of the 15 years following a down December since 1946. Counting out the last 30 Decembers before 2007, I find that the index was indeed up in 6 of the 7 years following December losses (the only exception was that the index declined in 1981 after declining in December 1980). However, the index was also up in 18 of the 23 years following up Decembers. A regression of these 30 years shows a statistically insignificant slight negative correlation between the S&P 500 index change in December and the index's change the following year:Ellison Study


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  1. Yucheng Pan on January 15, 2008 9:39 pm

    It seems that the S&P strategist did a good job of misleading by ignoring the other side of the coin.

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