Jan

10

A few shocking anomalist notes in honor of yet another virtuoso performance:

Once again the Nikkei predicted it, going up 0.3% after the US market declined 1.5%, its first such rise in seven days.

Tremendous negativism with the S&P index up 19 to 1409 but the futures up a mere 14.6 at 1411.6 for a 2.6 basis, about 1/3 of a percent prediction to down side.

The Dow went down to 12502 intradaym a nice 1000 since christmas and a continuous 1250 from 12/10 when it closed 13727. Same corresponding stuff for S&P, a run of eight open to close without a rise in S&P futures comes to an end with a measly up 13.

VIX finally goes above 25 on January 8 and gives a bullish signal sort of consistent with what the Spec Duo said in Daily Spec that it's bullish when above 25. Of course one had to wait five years, but during that time, continuous buying of futures would have lost money.

Bonds at a nice 1 1/2 year high at 119 making the total wealth of those who borrow trillions constant with the 10% decline in stocks offset by a 10% rise in bonds.

The terrible moves in last hour and the move to 1375 in the index and 1385 in futures, enough to wipe out gains of last 1 1/4 or 1 1/2 years .

Countrywide around 5 acting like other stocks in possible final stages below 5, with the market swinging from its signals as if it was the only stock even though it represents a 1/10 of 1% or so part of pie.

Ample opportunity for those who issued bearish recommendations to cover their shorts and reestablish positions in bellwethers like Intel and City. And so many other things; feel free to add some.

James Sogi adds:

A 32 point up handle to match the 39 point down afternoon handle of prior day.

Duncan Coker writes:

I hypothesize many fixed systems took a beating this first month of the year; mine certainly did. Perhaps another good reason not to use them. Improvisation comes to mind. Even after the two up days, we have had the worst start of the the year in last decade. How things can change, was it the employment number and a 35 point decline, or New Years' resolutions never to buy stocks again. Ranges of 34, 31, 45, 21, 25, 25 recently giving ample room for market to sweep all the chips off the table. Or the market saying it needs 2% wiggle room to decide where it want to reprice itself. It certainly makes for interesting trading. 


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5 Comments so far

  1. Anatoly Veltman on January 10, 2008 4:49 pm

    Of course, Victor, you fully expected this rally: following a string of eight bearish sessions, and convenient pre-measured 1510->1380 drop (see your own Jan2 post)! No less than you expected bonds to have a reaction from 119 double-top, following just as many bullish sessions. No less than approaching double-top in Silver, following 16 straight bullish sessions, no less! Platinum, that's been beating its head against $1550's for a week already. And then there is Gold, fast approaching pre-calculated $900 level, that should pique just about anybody's interest. No anomalies, old trader — just solid technical preparation. Keep it up!

  2. steve ratchett on January 12, 2008 5:54 am

    These markets are way more rationale on the downside than they were on the upside. Short next week ES at 1440. Target 1250 on the ES. Do not lever your shorts, you'll do well. Come back in six months. Reassess the situation then. That's easy. See you in six.

  3. Justin Timberlake on January 14, 2008 3:53 am

    It never ceases to amaze me when reading this site that a man with such an extensive education, who is very intelligent, and has so many years of practical experience in the market, can actually know so very little about how the market actually works and moves. I think it can only be explained by bias and hubris.

  4. Anatoly Veltman on January 14, 2008 9:04 am

    You're right, JT; and you see, you're now contributing to our eternal quest, too. Greater contribution, however, is encouraged: you can post your thorough analysis here, or else refer to your own great analysis page.

  5. Anonymous on January 15, 2008 7:39 am

    Sometimes the blog format doesn't capture the essence of what's meant. My post was meant to highlight the wisdom of Ms. Market, not my own. Vic

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