Nov

29

Do you think the 12 percent drop in the market over the last couple of months is enough? The Santa Claus rally is coming to town, I believe. The statistics back me up since normally after these kinds of drops the market tends to be up the next month an average of 46 points 78% of the time. That would be a nice Christmas present and that is what I am asking Santa to bring me for Christmas.


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2 Comments so far

  1. gabe on November 30, 2007 1:07 am

    i think this year is going to be the outlier if nothing moves on dec 11… and darth vader says ‘no’
    http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/22/magazines/fortune/cheney_news.fortune/index.htm

  2. Craig Bowles on November 30, 2007 11:41 am

    Was looking in the stock traders almanac and noticed that almost all the biggest one day and one week gains are in bear markets. At least the top 10 listed were. The sharpest S&P gains for the day are 3.3% and up. We had a 2.9% on Wednesday after Tuesday’s 1.5% but not quite the top 10. The weekly gain of 4.3% and up is around 60 points on the S&P. We’re probably going to finish up 40 points since Friday but 1480 would be up 73 points since Monday. With so much money jumping back in so fast, it would seem like a correction in a bear market. Seasonality of the last two years suggests we move higher the first two weeks of December. Fed meets Dec 11th. Economics still show the lagging index is by far the strongest index, so the economy is inverted and that takes time to fix. The bulls are saying we’re in the strongest 3 months of the strongest year in the Presidential cycle, so this runs up into Q1. Also, the market doesn’t discount the same even more than three times. Economists are calling for recession. The pullback reached previous growth rate lows. Seems like everyone is jumping in and playing that. Kind of like when Dogs of the Dow got popular. CAB

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