Nov

20

NAHB LogoThe last time the average of the NAHB Single Family Indices went over 95% as a scaled measure of home builder pessimism was November 1990. The current cycle reached the same level of despair in September of this year. The mean for the historical data going back to 1985 is 39.56%. Contrary to the media meme about the unprecedented speed of the decline of the current housing slump, the sentiment for current cycle has been -to this point - only 10% more doom and gloom than the last major slump. It took 20 months in the 1990 slump for the pessimism to go from below the then historical mean to over 95%. In this cycle it has taken 18 months. This may well be the end of days, but the people who make a living deciding when to pound nails seem to be taking the usual amount of time to go from thinking "the sky's the limit" to asking "brother, can you spare a refi." It has been enough to make us loser investors in the financials want to go ALL IN, and so we have - all the while hoping and praying that the ticking sounds we hear are the tips of the old men's canes on the cobblestones.


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