Aug

19

 We try to limit our children's use of television. Where we do so they invariably expand their use of other modes of indoor entertainment to make up the difference. I have determined that there is a consistency in the DVD selections that my three year-old makes throughout the week. One of the proxy selections available to my children is the use of the DVD player and selected films, teaching videos, animated works, etc.

My daughter selects some films occasionally. She selects other films rather frequently. And some films she selects routinely.

No matter what happens she returns to these films. Sometimes the frequency of the selection begins to decrease. However, there is always one film that takes the place of the former as the standard-bearer for consistency. And always every one in three days or so.

I have speculated that she needs to have a foundation, a basis from which to launch her entertainment regimen. Maybe she thinks she might stray too far from her good tastes and needs to view the old stand-bys to reassure herself.

I wonder if traders and analysts in banks from Tokyo to London do not have the same psychological complex working to affect their trading habits.

Is there by chance a "favorite" price at which a currency or a stock or commodity trades each day? Not a favorite based on statistical analysis but a favorite based preference? Is there a price that just "looks better" to the collective psyche?

I'll keep watching my daughter's viewing habits. I'll keep watching the Kiwi. And when Barney calls me for a margin call or the Bank of Japan advises against playing alone I'll know my theory has legs!


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  1. Michael on August 21, 2007 9:17 am

    Children are more likely to explore if they know they can return to something familiar, and even better, something safe.

    That is less important to older people but there is a good deal of research concerning anchoring and (insufficient) adjustment that could describe the tendency of a trader or groups of them to feel that a particular price or range is the “normal” or “natural” price or range.

    With me, it’s gas at 37.9 a gallon.

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