Aug

2

 Please may I humbly apologize to all your readers for my arrogance in April in trying to time when the Dow would peak? The market has taught me humility!

In this new spirit of humility, may I ask can be made of the amazing spike, more than 200 points in the last half-hour of trading on the Dow on August 1?

I see it almost as proof that very short-term technical analysis does not work. According to conventional TA principles, the fall from 14,000 traces out the right-hand side of a very bearish head-and-shoulders pattern with the neckline at 13,200 and potential downside to about
12,400.

As always the Market Mistress, knowing this popular interpretation well, sucks in all the bears and even drops the market down to 13,150 and below a few times to whet their appetite even further and then, without warning. does the equivalent of dropping a million tons of horse feathers on them out of a clear blue sky in the closing 30 minutes of trading!

Because of their own internal dynamics markets will always do what, if it came from a human being rather than an abstract system (even though that system is the sum total of thousands of human actions), would be instantly seen as deliberate cruelty.

But here I humbly seek wisdom. Does this mean that there are technical analysis systems which work, but only by waiting for the "tech" signals and then doing the opposite of what the signals are normally said to recommend?


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