May

18

 A few weeks ago Apple said that the next release of their operating system, Leopard, would be delayed because they were pulling engineers to work on the iPhone, scheduled for release in June. I predicted at that time that the iPhone would also be late, mostly due to Brooks' Law that adding manpower to a late project makes it later.

On Wednesday, Engadget reported (incorrectly) that the Apple iPhone would be delayed three months. The result $4b wiped off Apple's capitalization in a few minutes.


Engadget was forwarded an internal Apple email by an Apple employee. Apparently Apple's email servers were hacked and the internal email announcing the iPhone delay was forged. Be that as it may, we (along with Apple's management) can now see the likely stock market reaction to an iPhone delay.

I'm sure Apple's engineering dept is praying for a repeal of Brooks's Law. But what I see is that an on-time launch is already priced into the stock, and we've now seen a dress rehearsal of a delay announcement.


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