May

11

 I know I'm a bit boring talking about bicycle racing. But we are racing a long one here, like a Milano-Sanremo, 250 km almost flat and the last 50 km bumpy. If you go too fast you reach the legendary capes with wooden legs and at the first counterattack the opponent leaves you behind.

On the other hand if you go too slow the race will not be hard enough and the sprinters will have too easy a time beating you at the stretch. The same applies in the markets. Lack of perspective leaves you with distorted images of reality. I do remember clients closing short positions for lack of margins in February of 2000 and long positions closed in the course of the last bearish week before the long-term bull resumed its run. At times the fog which arises in one's brain in times of fear has compelled opening or closing positions, which, with a bit of calm, should never have got out of one's head.

I think the same vicious virus as afflicts Vic and Laurel has hit me, namely utter optimism, and I share with them the feeling that the long run is not over yet. It could be one of the last chances for shorties to bail out before the next big one comes.


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