The Plan, from Ken Smith

April 18, 2007 |

 The local natural gas company installed a new pipeline in the street I live on. All driveways off the street were destroyed and replaced with asphalt after the pipe was laid.

Today a crew is out there on the street removing the asphalt and preparing to lay concrete where the former concrete had been in place.

The crew knows what its doing. They have a Plan. Obviously they have done this many times and have every phase down perfectly; execution of the details goes without a hitch. When they finish a segment of the Plan one sees the product as a work of art, a work of perfection. Skilled workmen with a Plan.

From watching the crew work I return to my computer to see what markets are doing. I am struck by what I see, realizing there is no Plan visible on my screen.

The crew working outside arrives early in the morning and begins executing the Plan knowing every detail of the Plan from step to step. They complete one step, which logically leads into the next step. The Plan is laid out in their minds as step one, step two, step three, and so on. They are never at a loss as to what to do next.

When I look at the possible trades appearing on my screen all that's visible is step one. The subsequent steps are known, but in contrast to what the crew is doing in the street out front, these steps are variable. The crew laying the new cement does not have variables.

At the end of the day the cement crew will have a paycheck. At the end of the day I will have probabilities.


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