Dec

15

In a quick check of quarterly GDP data since 1947, I looked for instances of quarters less than priors (those under 30 will need a good economic history text to understand this). I then counted quarters between down quarters, and regressed this lag with (proxy for) date:

Regression Analysis: lag versus no

The regression equation is
lag = 1.99 + 0.0451 no

Predictor     Coef  SE Coef     T      P
Constant     1.991    2.739   0.73  0.472
no              0.045    0.0249  1.81  0.079

S = 9.40899   R-Sq = 8.8%   R-Sq(adj) = 6.1%

The positive and almost-significant slope shows de-fettering native free-market forces over time has reduced the frequency of contracting GDP quarters.

Or as Buzz Light-year would say, “To volatility zero and beyond!”


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