Traveling, from Alston Mabry

August 14, 2006 |

To throw a small coin into the fountain:A quick look at the TASE-100 (Tel Aviv Stock Exchange top 100 Index) provides only randomness, but I wonder, do the year to date daily TASE-100 adjusted closes cluster around the tens?

For the TASE-100 daily adjusted closes y.t.d., calculate the distance for each to the nearest ten, for example:

Date: 11-Jul-06
Adj. close: 831.77
Nearest ten: 830
Distance: 1.77

For all days y.t.d.:

Mean: 2.37
Standard Deviation: 1.48

Which appears consistent with randomness.

Victor responds:

Is it useful to think of the market as traversing various stops on a grand tour, a la Around the World in 80 Days? Right now for example the 10 year bond yield, which has been above 5% for several months has just dropped below that point. The Nikkei has spent much time below and around 15,000 and is now at 15,500. The TASE was below 800 at the start of the war in the Middle East, and has now gone above. The NASDAQ is around 2,000. The Dax is now confronting 5,700, having got to 5,697 today. Are these levels necessary for other markets to perk? Are they predictive or absorbing? What are your thoughts?





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