Aug

26

2Q GDP

August 26, 2020 |

Ralph Vince  writes: 

With a GDP of 21.75 t coming into this year, the quarterly contribution to this is therefore roughly 5.5 t.

Last quarter, 1.1t was shed, making the quarterly contribution about 4.4t, of which  3 t was "injected."

So take away the injected stimulus, and economic growth last qtr was about 1.4t.

Bud Conrad writes: 

I agree with your general thrust that the economy is in terrible shape.

But I note that it is not quite as bad as you indicate by subtracting all stimulus from the GDP calculations. Much of the stimulus was to buy assets to shore up markets, but the Gross Product doesn't take into account asset holding transfers.

Of course, asset purchases by the government SPV's do provide money to the sellers, to go buy additional assets like stocks and bonds, or even to invest in a few productive assets that might help the economy, so it is not clear what share of such spending should be deducted form the number to get to what it could have been, but we agree that it is very weak.


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