Mar

22

The closest we have to a random sample is the 7000 on the Diamond Princess and the 1000 from the NBA. All have been tested and the death rate is less than that for the flu. We could predict bases on standard epidemiologial models that the death rate would be less than the flu. Many have compared the actual numbers of deaths in the US to flu and come to this conclusion empirically. More importantly what is the utility loss to human happiness of the shutdowns and restrictions compared to allowing people to fend for themselves.


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4 Comments so far

  1. David Lilienfeld on March 25, 2020 3:00 am

    The issue isn’t deaths, necessarily, as the lung disease among young and middle-aged adults. Up to 15 years to recover 20-30% of one’s pulmonary function is a lot to ask of someone, even if it is only 20-25% of the severe cases clogging the ERs.

  2. none on March 25, 2020 11:16 am

    The issue isn’t deaths, necessarily, as the lung disease among young and middle-aged adults. Up to 15 years to recover 20-30% of one’s pulmonary function is a lot to ask of someone, even if it is only 20-25% of the severe cases clogging the ERs.

    ————this is very problematic. This is not in any way price into markets.

  3. Anon on March 25, 2020 10:56 pm

    If all these cases overwhelm hospitals, lots of people can’t get treatment (for COVID and for other illnesses and acute injuries).

  4. covidiot on March 28, 2020 1:28 pm

    Get your facts straight Mr. Niederhoffer. Diamond Princess has around 700 total positive cases - with 10 death & 15 critical. This means around 3.5% of death/critical rate. Critical presumable makes you go into ICUs.

    On the other hand NBA only has tested 1000 players (not identified 1000 cases as positive). Do you have the figure of how many NBA players have tested positive?

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