Mar

1

I am predicting one of best weeks in history next week starting with Mon. Reasons on twitter.

Ralph Vince writes: 

Yes indeed. Gold was down on the week last week, credit quality spreads didn't blow out — the coup e grace was the videos shot on smartphones supposedly of Chinese police chasing after guys with Covid19 (because, you know, they can tell the guy had Covid19, not the flu, those Chinese cops just "knew").

A month from now I suspect the foolishness we've witnessed will be apparent, which is not to say it's not deadly for one in 50 who catch it or less. Americans will be a country of total germaphobes by the time this weekend is over - a form of self-isolation which will further mitigate the viral spread.

March will be made in the first week I suspect, on a violent, rather disorderly lurch upwards. Then the volatility will return to normal, a process that will take time. After this quick, abrupt rebound (which no on will be able to get aboard if they aren't already, I further suspect) we'll go sideways, punctuated with head fakes, stutter-steps, and feints of breaking out to the upside or downside. But the ensuing move is well-over the horizon, the crowd needs to be ground down into total ennui. Eager to recover their losses and missed opportunities, the market will do the most perverse thing it can to the most players, as it always does.

Not until we feel like we're watching paint dry will the next move come.


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3 Comments so far

  1. Tim Brown on March 6, 2020 4:03 pm

    I’m poised in my doorway, cane in hand.

  2. William Hall on March 8, 2020 7:36 am

    I put 25 percent of my cash reserves to work last week and will add another 25 percent this coming week if the market continues to crash. This too shall pass.

  3. Sam Veneer on March 8, 2020 11:35 am

    If several vaccines are now being fast-tracked some good news may arrive soon and then a large upswing to “normalcy”?

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