Feb

20

This is the term of art pollsters use to explain why their numbers on political partisanship start to drift away from the "mainstream". Gallup is offering it as an explanation for the fact that their surveys find "the percentage of Americans identifying as Republicans (32% in the past two surveys, up from 28% in the prior two surveys), along with a decline in the percentage identifying as independents (41%, down from 43%) and Democrats (27%, down from 28%)." Should this 1 in 7 increase in the number of self-declared Trump loyalists be enough to defeat "Mike's" money and Senator Sanders' loyal following? The London bookies seem to think so. https://www.us-bookies.com/election/ I think they are looking at the other data Gallup offers for free. Here is the link to their longitudinal survey of Presidential approval going back to Harry Truman. https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx Incumbent Presidents lose, resign from office or have their party lose badly in the next contest when their approval rate falls below 30. Truman, Nixon, Carter, Bush 1 and Bush 2 all pegged that mark. Trump's rating has fallen as low as 36, but it is now at 49%. In his first term Reagan's rating hit a low of 37% but by early 1984 he was the same place Trump is now.


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