Jan

29

What does it say about the future of stocks returns when the big ones are advertising "riding the rally"?:

"Tepper, Druckenmiller Say They are riding the rally"

Ralph Vince writes: 

Once again, I must quote Camus, "If that's what they're really thinking, I suspect they will be in for a bad surprise."

The top will be in when sentiment says so, but I cannot rule out the early Jan 18 sentiment readings as having perhaps not already indicating this, we've overshot it in price but not by a whole lot as of yet.

The invested curve of late last Aug, my prop employment indicators now showing deterioration, and earnings flat for ten months indicate an imminent recession sometime this year.

With stocks trading at the same multiples as bonds, the former is generally preferred here because the risk is perceived as being in the bonds…the asset that will mature to par at some point.


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