Jan

18

The contrarian in me and I think many readers of the site tend to buy when we see red on the screen, and sell after lots of green flashes. I've thought to conduct an experiment to turn the colors off on the trading screen to see if there is a bias and just go by the numbers. In the same way certain phrases evoke a reaction, like the words "all-time-high", but it is not symmetrical to "all-time-lows". In our lifetimes it is unlikely we will ever see an all-time-low in equities or bonds, maybe in some commodities and currencies. Yet, we see ATHs quite regularly, for example in the last four year on ES SP500. ( 2016 - 27 , 2017- 65 , 2018 -16 , 2019 -33), or roughly 13% of the time. I think like the colors on the screen ATH is a meaningless phrase. I think more important is market price "x" is high or low compared to what "y"? I would vote for bond yields to go in the y variable, but the possibilities are wide. Employment, GDP. The variable one chooses for "y" has everything to with the predictions for x.


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