May

13

China, from Ralph Vince

May 13, 2019 |

 I'm still astounded by the actions of China last weekend. It seems we can count on them to make the stupid move, nearly every time.

I'm astounded by how amateur and clumsy that tactic was, the "11:59, sorry man this is all I have in my pocket," move in turning around after 15 months and saying they can;t live up to anything that has been tentatively agreed to as it violates their sovereignty.

To they really think President Bigmouth hasn't seen this move before, hasn't heard this tune before or did have contingency plans in pace for such a stunt? It looks like they do things by committee, this is typical non-US, by committee amateurism to "see how they respond to this."

To Bigmouth's credit, in a move of negotiation jiu-jitsu, the biggest leverage in any negotiation– time–he flipped from being against him to working now in the favor of the US.

No further talks are scheduled. Why would Bigmouth be in ANY hurry to talk to them until 2021, 22 or beyond or if ever?

So what do they do? They antagonize with pipsqueak threats on 25% on 60 bln–the full amount of which Trump is prepared to absorb having announced the grain buyback program in recent days.

My hope is that Bigmouth really is as sharp at negotiating as he is reputed to be, ad says nothing further. Nothing on the additional 300 bln in tariffs today (the anticipation of which is what the markets are reacting to this morning, not the pisqueak retaliation).

Yes, if he escalates, markets will temporarily tank further. OTOH, if he says he's going to leave things alone for now, keep that powder dry, we could have one of these 9/21/87, "Oh sh**, Oh Sh**, OH SH***," -type runaway rallies today.


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1 Comment so far

  1. vitor sequeira on May 15, 2019 1:56 pm

    i would like receive yours post by email , many thanks

    [Ed.: sorry, we don't have a way to send posts by Email]

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