Feb

10

 I wonder what Ralph, Larry, Bill and anyone with economic outlook have to say at this juncture. A quick 6-month drop from 1,800 to 600 is impressive: "Ocean Shipping Rates Plunge: Just a Blip or the End of Globalization".

Bill Rafter writes: 

Funny that you should ask, particularly today as I am writing a missive about that to clients.

The macroeconomic numbers show NO negativity. They look quite good. But of course, that's not the stock market.

This past week we have liquidated some individual equities that had given individual squirrelly signals, getting down to 75% long. They had been good longs and we were surprised when they had to go. We had not replaced them, mainly because the buy list was not impressive. But we were anticipating going back to 100% long Monday or Tuesday. That was before I reviewed the current situation today. Now we discover that we must liquidate another 5%.

The big surprise is that a number of the "lesser" indices have given good sell signals, meaning at the very least that a further rally is not imminent. In addition to those public indices, several of our own constructed indices suggest the market has overrun itself, meaning at least a pause. We may find ourselves liquidating our entire long position.

But to reiterate, the macroeconomic numbers are fine.


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