Dec

16

"Insiders Are Buying Heavily as the Crowd Continues Selling"

Steve Ellison writes: 

Attached is a graph of the Vickers insider ratio. They consider any insider sell:buy ratio under 2:1 to be bullish. The current 8-week average ratio is 1.46:1. Given that an 8-week average is mathematically equal to a centered moving average 3.5 weeks ago, this suggests insiders have been buying since last month.

Leandro Toriano writes: 

This has been a tough year, much tougher than the mere declines in the broad markets would indicate. Yet, throughout this year, every metric I keep has remained positive. Each week, I watch the EPS on the S&P 500 tick upwards (something that was not occurring from 2014Q4 through 2016Q1).

It's a correction in a bull market, of the 1984 or 1994-type (and, politially, more like the latter).

In the past few weeks however, the major sentiment gauges - the contango structure of Vix futures and the AAII sentiment data have reached levels rarely seen, and when they have been to these levels, protracted market run-ups lasting of at least a year ot two have followed. I think recession is entirely off the table in 2019, perhaps even 2020, and fits more in the 2021 camp (which is about the earliest we can see it manifest given the 7-year liquidity cycle).

You're not going to time this perfectly. It's a great era to be a buyer of stocks here, despite what might transpire tonight and tomorrow.


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