Nov

4

 How many of the activities of spying with their misinformation, dangles, floaters and honeytraps, emphasis on the false, and hiding of the true, in general, have counterparts in markets?

I was led to consider this by a reading of the excellent book The Spy and the Traitor. Perhaps most resonant to me was the warning against seeking confirmation from a third party of something you already believe. The false confirmation that the D-Day bombing would be at Calais and the false belief that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and the belief that an imminent nuclear attack on Russia were 3 examples cited by Macintyre in the book. The idea of searching for regularities among market moves that you know will confirm the regularity is horse from same garage.

Jim Sogi adds: 

Spycraft, a meticulous attention to details of deception, is important to spies and traders.

Never brag of success. Don't trust those who do.

Place orders in hidden unexpected places and disguise them and the size.

Use the element of surprise when entering a market.

Test the waters or market before committing all the way like the Commodore in Lefevre.

Never listen to the disinformation laid like traps.

Be prepared for pain under torture.

Understand the triple cross and the double cross always at play and how to use it against your counterparty.

Yeah, I read lots of spy books.
 

Peter Ringel writes: 

Great one-liners. The double/triple cross reminds me of myself searching for a bottom.
 


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  1. TC on November 1, 2018 6:25 am

    I always smile at the unbridled narcissism of bankers, traders, lawyers who envision themselves in epic battles, describe losses as a catastrophe, or tell each other they’re heroes or see themselves as some sort of 007 swinging from market to market.. Why? A battle is where people die, get maimed and see horrible things, a catastrophe is when a river overflows in Indonesia and 50 people die, a hero is someone who acts selflessly for others and if a spy gets caught, he ends up in jail or worse.. Folks in financial services simply move money around and hope to get a slice of it to pay for the house in Greenwich and a mistress on the UES. At worst you lose money, and its not even yours usually and get sent home.

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