Sep

20

 Because of wireless toll payments, the choke points at toll booths have disappeared.

A 15 to 30 percent reduction in vehicle counts will eliminate most choke points.

The levelized cost of a private car is about $0.75 per mile (the IRS allows you to deduct almost $0.60 per mile). Your private car provides you with door-to-door service on your schedule. The cost of parking is extra (whether at your home or destination).

Large public transport systems cost about $0.50 per mile. Half of this is provided by fares and the balance by taxes of one sort or another. Service is not door-to-door and the service is not on your schedule.

A large, autonomous van can easily accommodate 12 passengers. At a levelized cost of $1.00 per mile, the cost per seat mile is just $0.08. There will be no parking costs.

Assume that each car carries 1.5 passengers. Each fully loaded van (autonomous, non-unionized, minibus) displaces 8 cars. A 15% reduction in 4,000 vehicles per lane per hour, requires only 60 vans. For two lanes, double the number. For a 30% reduction, double the number again. The result, 240 vans, is the equivalent of expanding the two lanes to three.

If public policy allows private, mini-buses the public investment in infrastructure will be zero. The public subsidy for the additional transport will be zero. Initially the routes can be from suburban parking or assembly areas to urban dropoffs. Later, a system similar to uber can be used for timely, pickup and dropoff at user selected locations.


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