Sep
19
Training Camp for the Political Season Ahead, from Stefan Jovanovich
September 19, 2018 |
I will keep to my promise not to make any predictions before October 9th; but - like the Penguins (who have replaced the Peyton Manning Broncos as my favorite winter team) I have to get ready for the real political prediction season by working through the necessary exercises and drills.
There are two big things for political prediction: (1) getting the sample - like trades - correctly sized and (2) guessing the turnout - what those you who trade call the trend.
Last year's Senate race in Alabama taught me a lesson that I should have already learned from reading what LW and the other pros have said about trends. The only proper times for guessing turnout are when people are going to the polls; anything but recent "history" is, by itself, no guide at all.
What you can do early on, before the political season starts for real, is being figuring out what the proper allocation of the actual voters (Republican, Democrat, Independent) will be. Trump's odds in 2016 were far less of a longshot bet than the "expert" journalists and pundits said, once you at the cross-tabs in the polls. In an national election in which the Republicans controlled both the House and Senate and a clear majority of statehouses and governorships, the respectable polls and pundits were still allocating to the Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents over 50% of the likely voters.
The drill this week is to read all the recent polls that are NOT about the elections but include cross-tabs that define party affiliation. First up is one from Harris surveying "Blue Collar" workers.
Their unweighted sample shows a break-down of 1049 respondents as 353 Conservative, 444 Moderate and 252 Liberal. This is hardly surprising, given that the sample is heavily weighted toward males (628 Men, 421 women). Yet, even before we get to the pollsters own weighting, the thumb begins pressing down on the scale. Somehow, when the question of party affiliation is asked, 80 respondents disappear from the sample base and the remaining 969 report themselves as being 333 Republicans, 327 Independents, and 309 Democrats.
A sample that was 33.7% Right(Conservative), 42.3% Middle (Moderate) and 24% Left (Liberal) magically becomes 34.3% Right (Republican), 31.9% Middle (Independent) and 33.8% Left (Democrat). The party of segregation, slavery, racial quotas and unConstitutional naturalizations finds its allocation increased by 40%.
Harris' weighting of their sample show comparatively minor bias. The weighted sample for Party affiliation does add back 36 respondents and give them all to the Democrats; it also finds 19 respondents who, in going from unweighted to weighted sampling, have magically changed their affiliation to the Democrats (10 from the Republicans, 9 from the Independents). But these are - compared to the slight of hand in the unweighted sample from political sentiment to party affiliation, relatively minor changes; in percentage terms the Democrats only gain 1 point and the Republicans and Independents shares only lose a half point each.
To their credit, the Harris people do keep the complete survey data for their weighted sample of political sentiment; yet even there the Conservatives find themselves losing 30 respondents, while the Moderates gain 7 and the Liberals 23.
Preliminary conclusion: If 2016's numbers were distorted by sample bias, the ones for this year are trending towards being being actual works of fiction.
anonymous writes:
Some good thoughts there.
Mr Market has already made a pretty hard-and-fast prediction though, and, rather cryptically says "Nothing changes, it;s the same bull market we've been seeing since early 2016, just a little noise in Feb and March of this year, and back to the same chorus."
Whether or not this means the party in power in the various chambers change is uncertain, but the bass line will remain the same.
Comments
Archives
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- Older Archives
Resources & Links
- The Letters Prize
- Pre-2007 Victor Niederhoffer Posts
- Vic’s NYC Junto
- Reading List
- Programming in 60 Seconds
- The Objectivist Center
- Foundation for Economic Education
- Tigerchess
- Dick Sears' G.T. Index
- Pre-2007 Daily Speculations
- Laurel & Vics' Worldly Investor Articles