I met someone who invests by heavy construction company activity. He claims that heavy construction leads a rise in certain commodities as well as the general market, and that the top companies he monitors establish a rough lead time for investment. It would seem easy to identify the top ten companies online and chart their activity vs. specific commodities and the general market to see if it's true.





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2 Comments so far

  1. Ron Haave on April 23, 2018 10:06 am

    I was a corporate economist at McGraw-Hill for a few years in the 1960s.
    McGraw had just purchased FW Dodge Co. which provided detailed construction statistics on a monthly basis of individual contracts awarded throughout the economy. We developed a time series of moving averages of large contracts only (at the time, I think, $10 million and above) which generally presaged changes in GDP growth and, coincidentally, advertising page sales for Business Week magazine.
    I was enthusiastic about this project and am sure it would have value today (once you breach the Dodge paywall). Left the project when I saw that the McGraw Hill pension fund had purchased Howard Hughes offering of TWA at $84 a share which was funded by the sale its stake in United Airlines…Bigger fish to fry on Wall Street.

  2. Ed on April 23, 2018 9:33 pm

    I have driven past the steel mills south of Chicago dozens of times over the past five years. On a recent drive the odor from the smokestacks was pungent, and the air even on the highway was almost foggy. Never seen it like this before. They are pumping!!


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