Dec

21

A general observation: Reading various market analyses, it seems the modal form now is this:

(1) The market is over-valued versus some metric such as CAPE.

(2) Therefore, the market is going to crash.

As opposed to:

(1) The market is over-valued versus some metric such as CAPE.

(2) Therefore, it's reasonable to expect below-average returns going forward for some time period.

We seem to be very "crash sensitive".


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